2015 Cricket World Cup Quarter Final Preview
After many weeks of lop-sided contests we’re finally at the Quarter Final stage of the 2015 Cricket World Cup. This is where things start to really get serious.
There have been a couple of upsets along the way, but only one casualty as poor old England are on the plane home with Bangladesh stepping up to take their place. I guess the writing was on the wall for England back when they sacked captain Alastair Cook in the middle of their World Cup preparations. I don’t feel it’s so much the England personnel, it’s more culture, attitude and plain simply, confidence. Eoin Morgan is an excellent cricketer, but he was completely weighed down by the captaincy. England’s demise did cost us one of our pre-tournament plays, but we did pick up Ian Bell for most runs and Steven Finn for most wickets for England so not all was lost on the Poms.
Moving forwards, it’s now do or die for the eight remaining teams. They are seeded in order of where they finished in the pools which means we have the following Quarter Final matches:
South Africa vs Sri Lanka – Wednesday April 18th 2:30pm (SCG)
South Africa finished second in Pool B despite two poor losses against India and Pakistan. Their batting, led by the brilliance of AB de Villiers, cracked 400 on multiple occasions against decent sides in the West Indies and Ireland, but the rest of their batting haven’t set the world on fire. At times Amla and du Plessis have shown what they are capable of, but Quinton de Kock has been in horrendous form which means the Saffers have started every innings on the back foot. Their bowling also hasn’t been their usual self. They definitely missed the injured Philander early in the tournament and their fifth bowling option may leave them vulnerable against good opposition. Imran Tahir has been good this tournament and will be important on a Sydney turner.
Meanwhile Sri Lanka finished third in Pool A but do bring better form into the Quarter Finals. Kumar Sangakkara scoring four centuries in a row is the stuff of legends, and he remains the key to their success, but he has been well supported by Dilshan and Thirimanne at the top of the order, while Matthews has also finished off games very well in the lower order. The pitch in Sydney is likely to take turn so that will also suit the Lankans, however there is an injury cloud over Herath. There is still a big reliance on Malinga who leads their wicket takers so he’ll need to stand tall and strike early.
Verdict: This match will be a beauty. The value is most definitely with Sri Lanka ($2.76 at Sportsbet) but while many expect the South Africans ($1.45 at Sportsbet) to stumble as they have historically done at the World Cup, I think de Villiers will make sure this is their time. Pre-tournament we predicted this as a Quarter Final, although we had SA finishing first and SL finishing fourth, so we already have a play on Sri Lanka being eliminated here. South Africa to win, but a no bet match.
India vs Bangladesh – Thursday April 19th 2:30pm (MCG)
This will be an amazing spectacle as the MCG will be full of the most passionate cricket fans in the world. India have been superb in the preliminary matches, finishing on top of their pool without dropping a match. Something you could not have predicted after seeing their form during the Australian summer. Their batting looks sharp and confident with contributions across the board but Dhawan and Kohli in particular proving their class. It’s with the ball that India have really surprised with Shami, Ashwin, Sharma and Yadav all with ten wickets or more this series. They are excellent numbers and again, makes their summer efforts look even more surprising.
Bangladesh are the surprise packet of the Quarter Finals having defeated England in the prelims. They also pushed a number of other teams, so on their day, they are more than capable of competing with the other Test nations which bodes well for their future. It’s the consistency which has been most pleasing this series. The star has been Mahmudullah who has averaged 86.00 with the bat with two centuries from five matches. Fantastic numbers so India will want to remove him cheaply to make sure they don’t get a scare.
Verdict: Hopefully we do get a scare from Bangladesh ($5.75 at Sportsbet) as that could make this contest closer than it looks on paper, but India ($1.14 at Sportsbet) should be too strong and come through with the victory.
Australia vs Pakistan – Friday April 20th 2:30pm (Adelaide Oval)
The Aussies fell against New Zealand which left them to slip to second place in their pool. Not the ideal result for us for our betting plays, but they are in good shape and will be happy to be playing Pakistan in the Quarters. The Aussie batting list got a bit of a hit out against Scotland, but the only question mark perhaps lay in the form of the middle order. Clarke may still be underdone, Watson is clearly vulnerable and Faulkner is also coming back from injury. I feel Bailey would’ve been a better choice at number five to provide stability and a wise head which is so crucial in finals especially if they lose early wickets. I just can’t see Watson saving the day coming in at 3 for nothing. With the ball it’s been all about Mitchell Starc. He has been devastating and leads the competition with 16 wickets which is great for our pre-tournament bet at $11. It will be interesting to see if Doherty plays in Adelaide or they stick with the quicks.
Pakistan have arguably performed above expectations. With injury concerns and inconsistent form, I felt they were the Test team most likely to miss the Quarters. But they have played pretty well at times to finish third in their pool with the same number of wins as South Africa. Ul-Haq, Shehzad and more recently Sarfraz have been important with the bat while Younis Khan has struggled. Wahab Riaz and Sohail Khan have led the way with the ball but their attack has been struck down with an injury to giant Mohammad Irfan. Pakistan will only bring out a replacement if they win this match.
Verdict: Pakistan ($4.40 at Sportsbet) are capable of being dangerous but hard to see Australia ($1.21 at Sportsbet) losing this. They are a well-drilled, settled, multi-dimensional, professional outfit.
New Zealand vs West Indies – Saturday April 21st 12:00pm (Westpac Stadium, Wellington)
The final match of the Quarter Finals will see New Zealand host the West Indies. New Zealand finished on top of their pool after some superb performances throughout the series. Their batting has been led my Brendon McCullum’s dynamic stroke play which has come with a staggering strike rate of close to 200. Interestingly only one Kiwi is in the Top 20 leading run scorers for the series, with Martin Guptill sneaking in at #19 which shows that their tournament has been setup with the ball.
Boult, Vettori and Southee have been brilliant while underrated all-rounder Anderson has also picked up ten wickets this series. No doubt their ability to swing the ball in favourable conditions has been crucial to their success. However they will also play a semi at home if they win, so the only match they will potentially have to play away from home will be the final at the MCG. Huge advantage for the Kiwis.
The come up against the West Indies who have been equal parts brilliant and pathetic. Gayle’s 215 was a highlight but he’s nursing an injury coming into this Quarter Final and will play regardless of whether he is actually fit. Samuels and Simmons each made a ton during the prelims, but otherwise there wasn’t much to get too excited about with their batting. But it’s the dynamic ability of this line up which is scary as Sammy and Russell can come in late in the order and brutalize any attack. With the ball, Taylor has led the way with 14 wickets, while Russell and Holder have also chipped in. When the opposition gets on top, the Windies have a bad habit of dropping their heads and letting it get away from them. Conversely, let them get their confidence up and they can be very dangerous, especially in a knockout match.
Verdict: Pre-tournament we didn’t think that the Windies were the worst punt in town at $34, and if they can upset the Kiwis here then they will be well shorter than that. If the West Indies ($3.85 at Sportsbet) can get their match-winners to do what they do best then they are not without hope but it’s hard to tip against the form side of the competition in New Zealand ($1.25 at Sportsbet)
Our recommended bet: It’s hard to find a lot of value in the favourites, but if you’re happy to stick with South Africa to win, then we recommend a play on the special promotion at Ladbrokes giving you enhanced odds of $3.00 for all four favourites to win. Maximum bet of $100.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
