A huge clash to kick of Friday Night Football, with the 5th placed Warriors hosting the 8th placed Rabbitohs at Go Media Stadium. The Warriors will be looking for their 4th straight, whilst the Rabbitohs are trying to stop a 2-game skid, with superstar Latrell Mitchell still sidelined with a calf injury.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet to hopefully give us some beer and pizza money for the weekend.
NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Go Media Stadium, Friday 30th June, 6:00pm (AEST)
The Warriors come in on the back of thrashing the Dragons last week, winning 48-18 in a dominant display. The Warriors completed 73% of their sets, whilst running for 1780 metres, making 10 line-breaks to 3, and commanding 55% of possession. It’s the Warriors third straight 20+ point win, and it’s hard to argue that they are one of the form teams of the competition right now.
The Rabbitohs lost their second in a row last week, going down 31-6 at home to the Cowboys. The Rabbitohs were dominated in all statistics, however their discipline is where they are letting themselves down right now, as they missed 41 tackles, made 13 errors, and gave away 8 penalties last week.
The Warriors opened 1.5-point favourites, with money steadily coming in on the Warriors, as they’ve pushed out to 2.5-point favourites across the board. It’s hard to disagree, given how well the Warriors have been playing over the past month, as opposed to how poorly the Rabbitohs are playing. Still, I’m finding it hard to get to this number based on my power ratings of the Rabbitohs, even without Latrell Mitchell.
The total hasn’t moved all week, opening 42.5 and staying there throughout. Whilst my fair is 41, I don’t see value in the under, given how both teams’ attacks are well and truly capable of scoring 30+ on any given evening. So, I’ll avoid the total.
So, we go back to the side in this one. The pressure is on Souths, highlighted by the fact they were essentially co-favourites to win the competition just 6 weeks ago, to now sit 3rd favourites, with their price increasing by the week. In fact, a loss here and Souths could be on the outside looking in to the top 8. I don’t have a great deal of confidence here, so low stakes, however I believe the books have gone too far in making the Warriors 2.5-point favourites here, essentially saying the Warriors are equal to the Bunnies on a neutral. It’s rare to get a team as good as the Rabbitohs as dogs, so I’ll take them to get the win.
Rabbitohs to Win
$2.18 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi with Picklebet
Rabbitohs (1-12) – As outlined in the above preview, I like the Rabbitohs to get the job done here in a massive game for the bunnies. If they can get the win, I love them to do so by a small margin. In the Warriors 5 losses this season, they have not been beaten by more than 12.
D. Watene-Zelezniak 1+ Try – DWZ is on a try scoring spree right now, scoring 4 last week in his side’s 48-18 victory over the Dragons. He has 9 tries in the Warriors’ past 4 games, and is in career best form right now.
Alex Johnston 1+ Try – Whilst he’s having a down year for his lofty standards, AJ still has 12 tries in 15 games. With 4 tries in his past 3 against the Warriors, AJ is as good a chance as anyone at crossing the stripe.
SGM Odds: $11 at Picklebet
