We are at the final grand slam tournament for the year, as the world’s best tennis players head to Flushing Meadows in New York for their chance at glory. The 2023 US Open begins on Tuesday, August 29th and as usual, Ace is on board to provide his expert analysis and betting strategy for the outright markets for both the men’s and women’s draw. Check out all of his betting selections below and good luck to everyone following!
2023 US Open Outright Betting Tips
Men’s Draw
Novak Djokovic was on his way to what looked like his third grand slam of the calendar year at Wimbledon, only to be stopped by Carlos Alcaraz in the final in an epic 5-setter. It shapes as a much stronger line-up of the top players for the 2023 edition, with Alcaraz looking to defend his 2022, where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final.
Let’s take a look at this year’s draw and come up with some outright betting options for the fortnight.
Alcaraz or Djokovic?
This market is absolutely dominated by Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, and if you managed to catch any of their finals match-up in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, I’m sure you would agree that it is more than fair. Looking at the respective draws of both players, it looks to be a slightly more favourable draw for Djokovic. I do have a slight question mark as to whether the impact of a long season is having a slight impact on the level of Alcaraz. He wasn’t at the dominant level that I was anticipating in the lead-up tournaments, dropping sets to the likes of Purcell, Thompson, Paul, and Hurkacz across the two lead-up tournaments, also dropping a match to Tommy Paul. There are a couple of grinders as potential opposition early in the draw, including Koepfer in round 1, so it’ll be interesting to see how he looks through the first week.
Alcaraz looked to be cramping a touch late in the match with Djokovic in Cincinnati, meaning that is the second time in recent months that he has cramped in a match-up with Novak. The grass at Wimbledon is lower impact, and I wonder if Djokovic meets Alcaraz here, whether the Serbian looks to extend the match as long as possible, and drag Alcaraz into the deep waters as much as possible.
Best of the Rest
The rest of the field are at double figure odds, so it is well worth taking a look at some names with some favourable draws that could make a run into the second week.
In the first quarter, the player that stands out at their current odds is Alexander Zverev. Outside of Alcaraz, it’s easy to gravitate toward Jannik Sinner in the next instance, however Zverev’s form appears to be on the improve after what was a nasty injury last year. He has the game to genuinely threaten both Alcaraz and Sinner, and although it’s a tough draw, double figure odds to win the quarter looks reasonable.
Another player I don’t generally gravitate too in the grand slam outright markets, but will take a nibble at in quarter 2, is Andrey Rublev. The Russian sits third favourite at the moment, behind Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz, and I’d have Rublev a little shorter than the $7.50 that is currently on offer. I think a case can also be made for Rublev to reach the final at $36, although it would be a career best for him.
Quarter 3 appears to be the most open of all of the quarters, with a number of players similar prices to win the overall quarter. Those names are Holger Rune, Casper Ruud, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul and Sebastian Korda. Looking at the quality of tennis produced by each of those players recently, I give the edge at the current odds to Tommy Paul, followed by Frances Tiafoe. Tommy Paul has shown an ability to pressure some of the names at the top of the game, and the best-of-5 is no concern to him on current form.
It’s hard to make much of a case in Quarter 4 the way Djokovic is playing, with Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas the key threats.
Summary
I think the play here is to make a play on the outright on Novak Djokovic, and play into other sections of the draw for other longer range selections. I’ll also make a small outright play on Tommy Paul given the price looks too big, even though he falls in Novak’s half.
Also Backing:
0.25 units Tommy Paul to win outright at $150 at Betfair
0.25 units Rublev to win Quarter 2 at $8.50 at Bet365
0.25 units Paul to win Quarter 3 at $6.50 at Topsport
0.25 units Alexander Zverev to win Quarter 4 at $10 at Topsport ($12 Sportsbet)
Djokovic to win outright
$2.24 (1 Unit)
Women’s Draw
Iga Swiatek strolls back into Flushing Meadows attempting to back up her 2022 title, though it won’t be an easy task with a number of top players now breathing down her neck. Let’s get stuck in to a range of markets in our search for value.
Swiatek, Rybakina or Sabalenka?
For those who have followed me over the course of the last few years, you will know that I am not one to generally get too heavily involved in outright prices around Aryna Sabalenka. Having turned the corner earlier this year at the Australian Open, I have certainly changed my tune a touch. Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka have held down the spots as the three players you’d be keen to avoid when a grand slam draw comes around, and Sabalenka will certainly enjoy sitting in the other half to both of them.
Best of the Rest
The next best in the market, American Coco Gauff, also sits in the top half of the draw, and would meet Swiatek in the quarter finals were they both to progress. The other player with solid lead-up form on the North American hardcourt is Jessica Pegula, who is another player who should be more than comfortable in the Flushing Meadows conditions and looks worthy of a small play in the outright market. One name in her quarter that has the ability to challenge her is Madison Keys, however her price to win the quarter is a little more appealing at the time of writing than her outright price.
Summary
There are a number of players who are more than capable of challenging the top names, which makes it tough to select into any players extremely confidently. I’ll be backing Sabalenka and Pegula in the outright market, and Keys in the quarter winner market to kick off the fortnight.
Also Backing:
0.25 units Jessica Pegula to win outright at $12 at Betfair
0.25 units Madison Keys to win Quarter 3 at $10 at Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka to win outright
$6 (0.5 Units)
