The UFC heads to Montreal this weekend for a pay-per-view card headlined by a Welterweight title fight that pits Belal Muhammad against rampaging Aussie Jack Della Maddalena. In the co-main Valentina Shevchenko will look to retain her belt against impressive French contender Manon Fiorot. While the likes of Jose Aldo, Alexa Grasso, Benoit Saint-Denis and Jessica Andrade all feature on the card. We take a look at my three best bets for this weekend below.
UFC 315 Betting Tips
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Belal Muhammad was crowned Welterweight champion last year when he dominated Leon Edwards. He was then set to defend his title against Shavkat Rakhmanov in December but the contender was forced to withdraw with a bone infection. So the UFC has gone down to No.5 contender Jack Della Maddalena for Muhammad’s next opponent, and the Aussie is no easy beat.
Della Maddalena is unbeaten since making his UFC debut in 2022 and continues to not only capture show-stopping finishes but looks better than ever every time he sets foot in the Octagon. In the Aussie’s 17 career wins, 12 have been by knockout and the reality is Muhammad is very hittable so he will like his chances of clinching UFC gold. But despite that fact he hasn’t been knocked out since Vicente Luque took off his head in 2016, so while Muhammad isn’t hard to hit he definitely has a chin.
However, on the flip side Della Maddalena has his own issues, except his come in the form of wrestling. And he hasn’t fought the calibre of wrestler and pressure fighter such as Muhammad before. The champ basically made Edwards give up in their title fight and the Aussie is not hard to take down, as shown in his fight against Gilbert Burns. That means most likely his only avenue of victory is to land something telling on Muhammad early.
I would have liked to find a good price around a Della Maddalena early KO but when the market opened I was surprised by how close they are in odds. I was expecting Muhammad to open around $1.20, but shopping around this week he is as much as $1.60 with some bookies and the smart bet is to back him in. If you are value searching Muhammad by decision is the best play.
Belal Muhammad to win
$1.60 (4 Units)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
The champion Valentina Shevchenko finds herself in a peculiar position of being the underdog this weekend as she takes on the surging Frenchwoman Manon Fiorot. Shevchenko regained her title last September, beating Alexa Grasso in dominant fashion. While Fiorot is on a 12-fight win streak and will be confident of her chances of dethroning the women’s MMA legend. However, I believe the market has overreacted as Shevchenko is still in my opinion the best female fighter in MMA.
Fiorot’s route to victory is to beat Shevchenko on the feet, however, I doubt the champ will ever let her settle into a rhythm and she will rely on her grappling to stifle Fiorot’s offence. I expect Shevchenko to secure a dominant win this weekend and such is my confidence I am making it a max bet.
Valentina Shevchenko to win
$2.30 (5 Units)
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalie Silva
Natalie Silva is a massive dark horse at 125 pounds and has all the tools to make this weekend’s fight a one-sided affair. Alexa Grasso was badly beaten against Shevchenko last time out and now faces arguably the best athlete in the division.
A perfect 6-0 in the Octagon, Silva has flown largely under the radar but finally has got some of the attention she deserves after stopping former champion Jessica Andrade in her last fight and a win this weekend will almost certainly earn her a title shot. Silva should be able to counter Grasso at will here and win rather convincingly, most likely by decision.
Natalie Silva by decision
$1.80 (3 Units)
