The UFC heads to Salt Lake City for a cracking pay-per-view card headlined by ‘Poatan’ Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree and in the co-main, Raquel Pennington looks to defend her title against Julianna Pena. While also on the main card Jose Aldo faces surging Bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, Roman Dolidze goes toe-to-toe with Kevin Holland, and Kayla Harrison looks to secure herself a title shot with a dominant display against Brazilian Ketlan Viera. We take a look at the best bets on the card below!
UFC 307 Predictions & Betting Tips
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
Alex Pereira is undoubtedly one of the UFC’s biggest stars but this weekend he faces in my opinion the biggest threat to his Light Heavyweight crown against Khalil Rountree. Due to there being so much controversy around this matchup given the fact Rountree got the shot over Magomed Ankalaev - a man who could test Pereira’s wrestling - many are brushing aside ‘The War Horse’s’ chances of winning in this fight. But the fact is Rountree is one of the most dangerous fighters at 205 and his explosive Muay Thai style can truly cause Pereira problems.
Rountree is the faster striker whereas the Brazilian champion is undoubtedly the more powerful. Neither man will have any interest in taking this to the mat and I do believe Rountree has a great chance of catching Pereira who is actually quite hittable despite the aura of untouchability.
Rountree fights wild and therefore he will either connect flush and shock the world by knocking out the Brazilian or be left waking up to the bright lights in the opening exchanges. He swings with unorthodox hooks and is a menace in the clinch with nasty elbows and knees. The odds around Rountree are too tempting to pass up given I believe he is more than a puncher's chance of winning the fight, however, I do concede Pereira is still more likely to find the finish so will be a low-stake play.
Khalil Rountree to win
$4.75 (1 Unit)
Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena
Racquel Pennington will attempt to defend the belt vacated by Amanda Nunez against the woman who shocked the world by beating the Brazilian in 2021, Juliana Pena. Pennington comes into the fight on a six-fight win streak and faces Pena who hasn’t fought since losing to Nunez in the pair’s rematch. Realistically whoever wins this is going to get battered by Kayla Harrison next year but of the two I have to lean towards Pena to get her hand raises as she is the stronger grappler and more athletic than her counterpart.
Pennington is one-dimensional with pawing punches behind her jabs and a lot of clinch work. If Pena isn’t too rusty from the long layoff she most likely drops the first round before taking over down the stretch. I was originally steering clear of this fight from a betting perspective but Pena at underdog odds is too good to pass up.
Juliana Pena to win
$2.30 (2 Units)
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
My bread and butter of UFC wagering for the best part of a decade has been targeting fights that pin proven performers who have begun to age out against hyped young talents given too big of a jump in competition too soon. And this weekend has delivered us another one with Jose Aldo taking on Mario Bautista.
Aldo will make the 22nd walk of his UFC career this weekend and the 38-year-old is nearing the end of what has been an impressive career. However, last time out he battered Jonathan Martinez to show the old dog still has some bite still left. While Aldo is well past his prime his only losses in the last four years have come to Petr Yarn and champion Merab Dvalishvili, two men who would be massive favourites against Bautista.
Bautista has won his last six fights, three by submission and looked improved on the feet in his most recent win over Ricky Simon. However, he faces a massive step up in Aldo. The Brazilian has excellent takedown defence and should be able to repel his opponent’s wrestling attacks and tee off on him on the feet. Bautista also doesn’t have the ability to bully Aldo which is the way to beat him. I personally believe this is an easier fight for Aldo than Martinez was and one he may even get another finish in, although I am happy to cash in on his juicy money line price as Bautista has shown he can absorb a shot.
Jose Aldo to win
$2.40 (3 Units)
