Chiefs v Crusaders. It’s down to the two best teams in Super Rugby Pacific for the final in Hamilton. That’s how it is meant to be. One factor to discuss… home ground advantage. What value do we put on that when all four quarter-finals and two semi-finals have gone to the home team? Let’s take a closer look at an epic decider.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Grand Final Preview & Betting Tips
Chiefs v Crusaders
Saturday, June 24 FMG Stadium, Hamilton, 5:05pm (AEST)
There are a couple of big picture factors to weigh up first that might swamp all the nuance you can squeeze from this final.
Four quarter-finals and two semi-finals…all results fell to the home team. That’s exactly like 2022.
The differentiating factor is that the Crusaders went to Auckland’s Eden Park as the away team and won last year’s final 21-7 over the Blues.
That’s a rare feat and last achieved by the 2017 Crusaders in Johannesburg.
There you have it…home ground edge v champion road warriors.
The Chiefs have already beaten the Crusaders 34-24 and 31-10 this season so that significantly feeds into the positive psychology of the home team in Hamilton.
Another history note. No team in Super Rugby history has won more often (19 times) against the Crusaders than the Chiefs.
Which team has lifted the most in this finals series? The Crusaders.
They are a different beast at finals time and get back All Blacks great Sam Whitelock to lock the scrum.
It’s a last game in charge for coach Scott Robertson before he takes charge of the All Blacks in 2024. Likewise, masterful playmaker Richie Mo’unga is farewelling the Crusaders for Japan after the World Cup.
That’s enormous energy right there.
Some smaller facts. The Chiefs steal a bunch of lineouts.
That could be a vital combat area against a Crusaders team that ignites so many starter plays for tries off lineouts.
The Crusaders stepped up big time on defence in their quarter-final and semi-final wins. That was a key when the Queensland Reds inflicted the only loss on the try-happy Chiefs so far this season.
There’s patience and point scoring, big defence and discipline, to both these sides.
The Crusaders just win at this time of the year.
Hey, isn’t it time for a change? Chiefs by a skinny margin.
The sports bookies can’t split the opponents.
Ladbrokes have set the line at Chiefs (-2.5pts) at $2.10 compared to Crusaders (+2.5pts) at $1.67. You can’t get closer than that.
Flying fullback Will Jordan as an Anytime Tryscorer at $1.95 (Ladbrokes) has appeal as does hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho at $2.10.
More than 46.5 points scored all up at $1.91 (Ladbrokes) is the bet though no matter how good the defence is from both teams. No rain is predicted.
Over 46.5 Points
$1.91 (4 Units)
