The Storm and Sea Eagles are set to round off Super Saturday, as the Sea Eagles look to stay afloat after the massive loss of Tom Trbojevic for what is likely the season. The Storm will be aiming to exact revenge on the Sea Eagles, after going down 18-8 in round 7 at Brookvale.
Once again, the team at BeforeYouBet have you covered, with a thorough preview and list of bets below. Check out our Best Bet, and our Same Game Multi, courtesy of Picklebet.
NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles
AAMI Park, Saturday 24th June, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Storm took on the Tigers last weekend in Campbelltown without their Origin stars, and didn’t miss a beat, convincingly beating the Tigers 28-6. That’s two straight big wins for the Storm, after being humbled 45-20 by the Cowboys in round 14. The Storm weren’t perfect last week, but as the Storm tend to do, they found a way to win, and did so without getting above third gear.
As for the Sea Eagles, they were hammered 34-4 by the Eels, and despite the fact the Sea Eagles were without Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic due to Origin, it was a poor loss. The Eels were without 3 of their regular 4 spine members, and absolutely dominated the contest, leaving the Sea Eagles and Head Coach Anthony Seibold in a difficult position moving forward.
This number opened Storm -9.5, and since the confirmation of Tom Trbojevic being ruled out long term, the number has been pushed out to Storm -12.5. I made the number 9.5 prior to the loss of Trbojevic, so now we need to figure out what Tom Trbojevic is worth to the Sea Eagles, and where this number may finish.
The easiest way to find this out is to look back at another game Trbojevic didn’t play this season, and to do that we look back at the Sea Eagles’ round 9 clash with the Titans at Brookvale. The Sea Eagles opened 8.5-point favourites, only to be bet down to 6.5-point favourites on the news of Trbojevic being ruled out. The move didn’t appear to be big enough, as the Titans won 26-10 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs. This would suggest a 3-point move, on the road in Melbourne, is not enough of a move on the news of Trbojevic being out. As a result, I like the play of a Storm 13+ victory in this spot.
As for the total, it opened 43.5 and has not changed. I like the under here, however will look more towards betting on the Sea Eagles struggling to score points against this Storm defence without Tom Trbojevic.
Other Bet
Manly Sea Eagles (team total) Under 15.5 - $1.90 at NEDS (1u)
Melbourne Storm -12.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Will Warbrick (anytime try scorer) – Warbrick is turning into yet another Storm try scoring machine on the wing. He had 4 last week, which brings his total up to 11 in his debut season. The Sea Eagles concede a whopping 49% of their tries on the left, opening things up for the Storm right side winger to add to his tally this weekend.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona (anytime try scorer) – NAS has been named to start on an edge this weekend, and assuming he plays down the right edge, I like his chances of a try here. The big man only has one try this year, but is always likely, and given he will be running at halves and outside backs, I love his chance at barging over for one here.
Melbourne Storm (1st half total) over 14.5 – The Storm will be looking to get out of the blocks quickly here, and put this one beyond doubt by halftime. They have a big game against the Panthers next Friday night, and would love to have a cruisy second half here, where they may look to rest some Origin stars.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at Picklebet
