A huge clash caps of Friday Night Football, as the Panthers head south to take on the Storm at Marvel Stadium. Both teams will have their eyes firmly focused on September, however bragging rights are up for grabs here, and this should be a cracking contest.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet to prop up those accounts.
NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
Marvel Stadium, Friday 30th June, 8:00pm (AEST)
The Storm came into last week’s clash against the Sea Eagles with revenge in mind, having lost earlier in the season 18-8 to the Manly side. Without Cam Munster, the Storm were shy of their best, however were still far too clinical for a poor Sea Eagles team. Statistically speaking, this game should have been far closer, however the Storm were better in the big moments, something they have done for years.
As for the Panthers, see above. Without a host of first grade talent, the Panthers hosted the Knights, managing a 20-12 win where they never got out of 2nd gear. The Panthers juggernaut continues, with or without their stars, with a great system set up at the foot of the mountains.
The Storm opened 1.5-point favourites, and that number hasn’t changed all week. This would indicate the Panthers are a 1-point better team on a neutral, without Nathan Cleary. I can’t quite get to this, and believe the Storm are value in this matchup. I base this on the fact I would have this game close to a pick em’ with Nathan Cleary in this Panthers team. Without him, I make the Storm a 5.5-point favourite. Given this is subjective, the bet won’t be large, however I like the Storm to get the job done at home.
As for the total, the number opened 39.5 and has steadily trickled down to 38.5. I make a fair closer to 35.5, so I also believe there is value in the under here. The Storm have played 11 games that have gone under the total this season from their 15 games, whilst the Panthers have played 10 from 15 games. Both teams pride themselves on their defence, and I expect this to be a tight encounter for the full 80 minutes.
So, two plays in this one, with our best bet the total going under, with two of the best defensive teams in the competition going head-to-head.
Other Bet
Storm to Win - $1.77 (1 Unit) at Picklebet
Under 38.5 points
$1.86 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Xavier Coates (1+ try) – The Panthers leak 45% of their tries down their right side, and with Coates matching up against Brian To’o, I fully expect an aerial bombardment from the likes of Jahrome Hughes and Cam Munster.
Panthers to score first try – The Panthers are notoriously fast starters, scoring the first try in 10 of their 15 games so far this season. The Storm, on the other hand, have only scored the first try in 6 games this season from 15 games.
Under 44.5 total points – See above, just adding another converted try to the total for some insurance.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Picklebet
