A huge clash puts a bow on Friday Night Football for round 22, as the Storm host the Eels in a crucial matchup between two sides aiming for Premiership glory. With both sides coming off losses in round 21, they will both be looking to bounce back in a matchup that has a finals’ feel to it.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels
Marvel Stadium, Friday 28th July, 8:00pm (AEST)
As mentioned, the Storm are coming off a loss in round 21, as they went down to the Knights in Newcastle 26-18. In a game the Storm were expected to win comfortably, they struggled, conceding 8 line-breaks to a Knights team averaging just 5.3 line-breaks per game. It made it 2 losses from the Storm’s past 3 games, with the form leading into September surely a concern for Head Coach Craig Bellamy.
The Eels also lost last week, going down 24-16 to the Cowboys in Townsville. The final score did flatter the Eels, as the Cowboys led 24-4 with just under 10 minutes remaining. It was a concerning performance from the Eels, who are now clinging to a spot in the 8 by the skin of their teeth. Given their tough run over the final 6 rounds, they need to start winning games if they’re going to make it back to the finals this season.
The Storm opened massive 8.5-point favourites, with money deservedly coming in on the Eels, with the Storm now 6.5-point favourites at the time of writing. My power ratings have this closer to the Storm being a 5.5-point favourite, and that’s giving them the full 2.5-points home field advantage, despite this being just the second game at Marvel Stadium for the season. I believe the number will probably close Storm -5.5, and as such I do like the value of getting the Eels +6.5, to cover off the converted try margin.
As for the total, it opened 42.5 and has stayed there all week. Whilst my fair is 44.5, I don’t like an over for this matchup. The Storm have played the most unders of any team this season (tied with the Tigers), and matchups between these two teams have been low scoring for the past few seasons. I’ll steer clear for now.
We are left with the spread. As mentioned above, I make the number a little shorter than it is now. However, I am scared off by the Eels as underdogs. As dogs this season, they have covered only twice in 9 games. The lesson, the Eels lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to. Given this, I’m confident in a Storm victory here, and to add a little value, I’ll take them at the 1-12 margin. The Eels, despite losing to better teams, have only lost once all season by 13+, and that was without their Origin stars a few weeks ago. I like the Storm in a tight one.
Melbourne Storm (1-12)
$3.25 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
$11 Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Storm to Win – As above, Storm should win at home against an Eels team that struggles against the big teams.
Will Warbrick (1+ try) – Warbrick has slowed in his rookie season, as most first year players do, however this weekend he takes on Waqa Blake, who isn’t up to first grade standard and makes far too many mistakes.
Mitch Moses (1+ try) – Moses and King Gutho have been doing everything they can to get the Eels over the line the last few weeks, and with 7 tries already this season, I believe there is value in a Moses try this week.
SGM Odds: $11 at Picklebet
