The first of the elimination finals kicks off on Saturday evening, when the Cronulla Sharks host the Sydney Roosters at PointsBet Stadium. Whilst sudden death football technically started last weekend, this is the first real sudden death game for the season, with the winner moving on to a semi-final against the loser of the Broncos vs Storm clash on Friday night, and the loser going home. This should be a great game.
Below, we will dissect the matchup and provide our best bet. Good luck to everyone following, and be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every finals matchup for free!
2023 NRL Second Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters
PointsBet Stadium, Saturday 9th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Sharks were in an absolute dog fight with the Raiders up until just before the hour mark, when Sebastian Kris was sent off for an old-fashioned spear tackle. Up until that point, the Sharks led 10-6, in a game that had me thinking the finals had started a week early. The first half, in particular, was a grind with both sides completing at a high level, in a cracking match up of field position football. The Sharks ended up running away with the win 24-6, taking advantage of the extra man for the final 20 minutes. The missed tackles (31) and error count (12) of the Sharks will have coach Fitzgibbon a little worried, and they will need to be far better against the Roosters this weekend if they are going to win.
Speaking of the Roosters, they kept up their tremendous late season form, winning a sudden death game with the Rabbitohs 26-12. The Roosters were dominant in a 5 tries to 2 victory, claiming their 5th win in a row entering the finals. The underlying statistics in the matchup with the Rabbitohs were fairly similar, indicating the Roosters were far better where it counts, inside both 20’s. Has Coach Trent Robinson got the Chooks cooking at the right time, or is their form not as genuine as many believe? This week could prove it.
Match Preview
These two sides only met once in the regular season, with the Sharks snapping what was a 7-game winning streak that the Roosters had over the Sharks, with a 22-12 victory at home. It was a scrappy matchup, with the Roosters giving away 14 penalties to the Sharks 4, and the Roosters having 3 players sent to the sinbin (last two were inside the last 10 minutes). The Sharks took advantage, winning the time they had an extra man (or 2), 14-6.
The Roosters came into the game as road favourites, closing 2.5-point favourites over the Sharks. At that point in the season, the Roosters were 3-2, whilst the Sharks were 2-3. The total closed 43.5, easily going under.
For this clash, the Sharks opened 2.5-point favourites against the spread, however it didn’t take long for Roosters money to come in and make this a pick em’. My number is Sharks by 0.5-point, so basically a pick em’ and I see no value in betting the spread in this game.
As for the total, it opened 40.5 and has been bet up slightly to 41.5. My fair is 40.5, however I don’t really see an edge here either. You would think being finals football, the totals would be a little lower, however a look over the last 3 years of week 1 finals paints a different picture. In matches not featuring the Panthers, the average points scored in week 1 finals matches has been 52.3 points, with a low total of 44. Definitely something to think about.
So, what do we bet then? Well, I’m going to look at this matchup being tight. These two teams are similarly power rated by me, and given how tight much of the round 7 clash was between the teams, I can see a real back and forth battle here in week 1 of the finals.
Either Team to Win by 10.5 or Less
$1.80 (2 Units)
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Ronaldo Mulitalo (1+ try) – Mulitalo has 3 tries in his past 4 games against the Roosters, as well as having scored 20 tries this season. The Roosters right side defence has leaked 33 (40%) tries this season, and the Sharks will be sure to attack down that side on Saturday night.
Joey Manu (1+ try) – Cometh the hour, cometh the man? Joey Manu is a big game player, and this is a big game. Should have too much skill for Siosifa Talakai, and the Roosters will be trying to hit him early and often.
Over 37.5 Total Points – As above, my fair is 40.5, but given week 1 finals games of late, this could be high scoring.
SGM Odds: $6.75 at Picklebet
