A full round of fixtures returns this week, and a rivalry match begins a bumper weekend of action. The Sharks are at home to the Dragons; two sides who need no introduction to one another. It will be another fierce encounter as each team attempts to face their own challenges on and off the field. While the Sharks are at the right end of the competition ladder, the Dragons are close to ‘playing for pride’ and will be if their poor performances continue.
As always, stay tuned to BeforeYouBet for full previews of sporting action from across the globe this weekend.
NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
PointsBet Stadium, Thursday 29th June, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Sharks enjoyed the Bye last week following their 48-10 dismantling of the Bulldogs in Round 16. Always expected to dominate the Sharks delivered 5-try performance in the first half to lead 30-4 at HT. With the match basically over, they cruised to victory and importantly, suffered no major injuries to key players. They controlled possession (54%), made over 600m more, had 11 line breaks and had 500+ post contact metres. Following consecutive losses to the Broncos and Storm, such an effort was needed.
The Dragons can only wish for such a performance and off-field stability. It has been a tumultuous few weeks for this club and it was made worse by their 48-10 defeat by the Warriors in Wollongong; they lost to a side with a win rate of less than 10% at their home ground. They were outplayed for 80 minutes; they had just 45% possession, completed at 70%, trailed in every attacking area with notable mentions to making 500m less and just 3 line breaks. It was worse in defence as they missed 32 tackles and conceded 10 line breaks. Such a performance indicates where this squad is currently at. Caretaker coach Carr has his work cut out for him in coming weeks if he is to motivate this squad towards success at the business end of the season.
The odds (Sharks $1.12 vs Dragons $6.20), season statistics/performance, home ground advantage and recent history all point towards a Sharks victory. These two sides met back in Round 4, where the Sharks dominated 40-8, scoring 7 tries and keeping the Dragons scoreless in the second half. This extended the Sharks winning streak over the Dragons which now stretches to 7 consecutive matches. 4 of those victories have come as the home side in tight matches (winning margin 4.75 points) but this is not a surprise given the Sharks 57% record at home vs the Dragons 35% strike rate here. Overall, the Sharks have performed better on both sides of the ball this season. They average 26ppg in attack and 21ppg (still relatively high for a contending team), while the Dragons are almost the opposite, averaging 21ppg in attack and conceding 27ppg in defence.
The evidence is overwhelming and while the thought of a Sharks victory is supported, you will need to go searching for value in this game. The line (18.5) is almost too high to entertain; the fact that the Sharks are prone to conceding a high amount of points is never ideal. The recommendation here is to play it safe with a margin. The home team should win by more than 2 converted tries; 3 of their past 7 wins against the Dragons (and most recent) have come by a 13+ margin. This would be a suitable anchor in a multi, or you could increase your stake given the confidence in the investment below.
Sharks 13+
$1.50 (3 Units)
NRL Same Game Multi 1
Total Points Over 45.5 – The average total points margin in the past 7 meetings (all Sharks victories) is 47 points.
Sharks -11.5 – The Sharks should be far too good, and adding the line bet generates more value.
Jesse Ramien 1+ Try – He scored two tries back in the Round 4 meeting; with six tries to his name this season, and he’s scored 33% of these against the Dragons.
SGM Odds: $4.20 at Picklebet (1 Unit)
NRL Same Game Multi 2
Teig Wilton 1+ Try – Wilton’s stocks are rising fast. He has scored six tries for the season and is proving a dangerous option on the Sharks left edge.
Siosifa Talakai 1+ Try – Talakai has had a quiet year this season by his standards with just two tries to his name. That doesn’t mean he is not a strong and damaging ball runner. If he gets his chance, expect him to go close also.
SGM Odds: $6.50 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
