For the second week in a row, we have a one-off Sunday afternoon fixture, as the Sharks look to get back on track, when they host the Bulldogs. After being humbled by 44 points last week against the Storm, the Sharks are desperate for a big performance this week. Let’s dive in and try and find some value.
NRL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs
PointsBet Stadium, Sunday 18th June, 4:05pm (AEST)
As mentioned above, the Sharks were humbled last week, going down 54-10 to the Storm in Melbourne. It continues an alarming trend for the Sharks, who have struggled to match it with the top teams in recent seasons. Last week, the Sharks managed only 39% of possession, whilst completing only 63% of their sets. It’s another worrying trend for the Sharks, who have the worst completion percentage in the NRL this season. The Storm dominated in every area; however, a massive concern has to be the 57 missed tackles by the Sharks last weekend.
The Bulldogs were also heavily beaten, going down 34-12 to the Eels at Accor Stadium. The Bulldogs have the worst for and against in the league this season, and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will be another lost season for the Belmore boys. The Bulldogs conceded a whopping 2054 metres last week, and need to be much better against a Sharks team that will look to dominate them through the middle early.
The Sharks opened huge 11.5-point favourites, with money pouring in on the Sharks midweek, after Matt Burton was drafted into Origin camp, following the withdrawal of Latrell Mitchell. The number now stands at 15.5, which is top 10 biggest spreads of the season. And the scary thing is, I believe it still has room to move. I predict this will close 17.5/18.5, so from a purely numbers bet, the Sharks still hold value.
The total opened 45.5, and it has dipped slightly to 44.5 with the loss of Burton. My number is spot on 45.5, so I see no value in the total here.
This game sets up well for a big Sharks win here, and so the spread will be where I focus my attention. My power ratings would suggest the Sharks should be a 13.5-point favourite here, with both teams at full strength. With the loss of Burton, it’s quite easy to see value in the Sharks -15.5 side. Burton is worth well over 2 points to the Bulldogs team, and I have little hesitation here. If you got on early at 11.5, congratulations, that’s going to look like a great number come kick off when this closes Sharks -17.5/-18.5.
A little narrative-y here, but I can see Nicho Hynes having a blinder this week. He had his worst game as a Shark last weekend, and he will be looking to make amends. When a good team is humbled like the Sharks were last weekend, a bounce back is almost inevitable.
Cronulla Sharks (-15.5)
$1.85 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi at Picklebet
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Sharks (win both halves) – I see the Sharks wanting to start fast in this one, before the Bulldogs manage to peg them back a little before half time. If this happens, I believe the Sharks will get a rocket from coach Craig Fitzgibbon, and the Sharks will come out in the second half and put the Dogs away early.
Ronaldo Mulitalo (anytime try scorer) – Currently the 6th leading try scorer in the competition, Mulitalo is averaging 0.92 tries per game this season. He has scored 4 tries in 4 career games against the Bulldogs, and I like him to and another one here.
Sione Katoa (anytime try scorer) – Katoa has fallen behind his wing partner this season, with just the 6 tries in 13 games for Katoa. However, he has an exceptional record against the Bulldogs, scoring 4 tries in just 3 career games against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs also concede 38% of their tries down their left edge, meaning the right-side wing of Katoa should have plenty of chances.
Nicho Hynes (anytime try scorer) – This one is a bit of a flier, based on Hynes just having one of those games. Hynes only has one try this season in 10 games, but I can see him running one in here in a huge statement to Blues coach Brad Fittler.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at Picklebet
