Two teams that expected being much higher on the ladder this season close out round 18, as the Roosters head to Brookvale to take on the Sea Eagles. With both sides currently outside the top 8 and horribly out of form, there’s a real possibility both sides will miss the top 8. That makes these games against fellow battlers all the more important, with the loser of this clash having a tough hill to climb to make the finals.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet to prop up those accounts.
NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters
4 Pines Park, Sunday 2nd July, 4:05pm (AEST)
Manly are coming off the back of a 24-6 loss to the Storm, in a game which was relatively evenly matched statistically speaking, however the Storm were just too good in the big moments for the Sea Eagles. The loss of Tom Trbojevic was clear in attack, as the Sea Eagles struggled to turn their possession into points.
The Roosters are also looking to fair better than they did last week, as the tricolours were beaten 20-18 at home by the Raiders. The Raiders dominated the first half, leading 18-0 before a Joey Manu try on the stroke of half time gave the Roosters hope. The Roosters appeared the better side in the second 40 minutes, but it wasn’t enough as they crashed to their 3rd loss in 5 games.
The Roosters opened 2.5-point favourites in this game, however the favourite has flipped, and it’s flipped a full 5 points, with the Sea Eagles now sitting as 2.5-point favourites. If you were lucky to get in early on the Sea Eagles, kudos to you. I have the Sea Eagles as 2.5-point favourites, with these teams equal in my power ratings. Given this, as the market now stands, I see no value in betting the side in this matchup.
As for the total, this opened at 43.5 and has dropped to 42.5. This is exactly in line with what I make a fair total, and once again we have no value betting on the total in this Sunday afternoon matchup. I would lean towards the under, given these teams’ propensity to play unders (both at 60% unders), however it isn’t enough to pull the trigger.
So where do we go from here? I’d like to think this game will be closely fought; however, I’m not convinced, and the main reason is the Sea Eagles’ ability to pile on points at home. They have had some great performances at 4 Pines Park this season, and I believe the home field advantage will be enough to see them home. Would have been nice to get on early in the week at plus money, however at the current odds this isn’t a bad investment in my opinion.
Manly Sea Eagles to Win
$1.78 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Joey Manu (1+ try) – The Sea Eagles concede 45% of their tries down their left edge defence, and with Manu now back in his favoured right centre position, expect him to terrorise that left side defence of the Sea Eagles.
Haumole Olakauátu (1+ try) – The powerful backrower scored his first try since round 8 last week, and it could open the flood gates, with Haumole a huge option in the redzone now with Tom Trbojevic out.
SGM Odds: $10 at Picklebet
