Everything is on the line for the Wallabies against Wales in Lyon on Monday (5am AEST). Even those with no school French can translate “le catastrophe” which will be exactly the case if it is anything less than a victory.
The Wallabies must beat the Welsh and deny them a bonus point. Scoring four tries for a bonus point themselves would be another kickalong to earn a quarter-final spot.
Those who saw a Fijian upset of the Wallabies in their kava bowls in the last game were well rewarded.
What’s in store in the third wave of matches?
Australia v Wales Betting Tips
Monday, Sept 25 Lyon 5am (AEST)
This is one of the most regular match-ups in World Cup history going way back to the Welsh toppling the Wallabies to take third place at the inaugural tournament in 1987.
The countries have a history of tight clashes. The Welsh winning the pool game 29-25 over the Wallabies in Tokyo four years ago was typical. It’s the last-chance saloon for the Wallabies but the Welsh will be thinking the same if they want to advance to the quarter-finals.
Both coaches Eddie Jones (Australia) and Warren Gatland (Wales) have vast experience playing against each other’s sides so there will plenty of little tactical games within the game.
OK. Team selection-wise, the Wallabies are far stronger with a fullback with punch like Andrew Kellaway, who is a proven try-scorer and has thrust to add some venom to the backline.
Kellaway entering the backline will create chances for Jordan Petaia, Mark Nawaqanitawase and Marika Koroibete around him which is a very good thing. The Welsh defence on the tryline against Fiji showed how hard this Welsh nut will be to crack.
New flyhalf Ben Donaldson has shown solid poise in his two games to date at the World Cup but playmaker is where the experience gulf is greatest for the Wallabies.
Donaldson and bench back-up Carter Gordon have 12 Tests between them over 12 months. Welsh playmaker Dan Biggar and back-up Gareth Anscombe have 146 Tests for Wales between them over 15 years.
That’s a helluva difference when it comes to closing out a game in the tense final 15 minutes of a do-or-die World Cup match. One thing never changes in rugby. It’s your pack that earns an easy ride for any No.10.
The Wallabies forwards have to step up after losing the contest against the Fijian pack.
The Wallabies gave up 11 turnovers, when not protecting their ball well enough, and conceded 18 penalties. Any similar stats will spell curtains against the grinding Welsh.
The Wallabies do look stronger in the pack with Pone Fa’amausili as a reserve prop to bolster the scrum for longer. The lineout was one of the few winning areas for the Wallabies against Fiji and Nick Frost’s ability to pinch a Welsh throw or two can mean valuable momentum.
Tom Hooper has a big role at No.7 this week to be precise with his cleanouts and ball-protection. Fraser McReight is an energy spark from the bench in this game.
The Wallabies side looks balanced, even though destructive giants Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou are missing.
How much do the Wallabies want this? We are about to find out. This will be a fascinating game with three possible outcomes...a close Wallabies win, a close Welsh win or a Wallabies victory by up to 14 points.
The Wallabies are listed as underdogs so there is betting value around, starting with $1.95 in H2H betting for the win (TAB.com.au). The Wallabies to win by 1-12 at $2.50 (TAB.com.au) is really the best bet on the result. Drilling down further, you can get $7 (Ladbrokes) for a Wallabies win by 6-10. That is appealing for sure.
The Wallabies to win both halves at $3.60 (TAB.com.au) bumps up the price but be wary of the limited scorepower off the bench in a side which will lessen in cohesion late in the game. Steer away from this bet.
Petaia is again a good bet for an Anytime Try. You’ll find $3.50 or better around.
Wallabies Win By 1-12
$2.50
