Now the Wallabies have derailed themselves, the Rugby World Cup is down to the business end for those countries bidding for the last of the quarter-final spots.
France’s 60-7 thrashing of Italy confirmed that the French and All Blacks will advance to the quarter-finals from Pool A in that order.
Fiji need a single point from their final pool clash against Portugal (6am, Monday AEDT) to confirm their advance from Pool C with Wales. That should be routine and it will mean the Wallabies being dumped from the tournament before the quarter-finals for the first time.
The big interest is in the Ireland-Scotland and Argentina-Japan clashes which will decide quarter-final positions.
What’s in store? Jim Tucker provides his analysis and best bets for this weekend’s key games below.
2023 Rugby World Cup Group Stage Betting Tips
Ireland v Scotland
Sunday, Oct 8 Stade de France, Paris 6am (AEDT)
This is a classic clash with huge consequences for Six Nations rivals who have been playing each other since 1877. The Irish have had by far the better of the match-up in recent times, winning eight in a row and dropping just a single match (2017) over the past decade. Of course, this one is being played on neutral turf and Irish anxiety can be cranked up if the world No.1 is pressured constantly.
The Scots seem perversely to have lard luck stories written in their rugby history. They could beat Ireland without earning a bonus point, concede a bonus point and miss out on the quarter-finals. I get the feeling that’s how it will pan out.
The Scots have shown improvements in defence so there is the scope for an upset here and certainly a closer result than the 22-7 loss to Ireland when the teams met in Edinburgh in March.
The Scots are at inflated value to win outright at $5.60 with Ladbrokes. Have a nibble at that. TAB.com.au has better value than Ladbrokes at the line with $1.95 for Scotland with 11.5-points start. The $1.91 for the total score to be under 44.5 points (Ladbrokes) also has merit because there have been some low-scoring games between the top sides.
Japan v Argentina
Sunday, Oct 8, Stade de la Beaujoire 10pm (AEDT)
This is a straight shootout. The winner advances to the quarter-finals. The Japanese haven’t been as impressive as their form at the 2019 World Cup in their own country. That said, they play a high-paced, attacking style that causes unease in every opponent. It’s just a matter of for how long.
The Argentinians have a fine World Cup record. That’s largely due to the fact that when this peak tournament comes around it rewards teams with big, powerful forward packs and sharp kickers.
The Japanese will score some exciting tries but you have to fancy the Pumas getting there in the end. An Argentinian win by 1-12 points (Ladbrokes) at $2.63 looks juicy.
Argentina Win By 1-12
$2.63
Fiji v Portugal
Monday, Oct 9 Stadium de Toulouse 6am (AEDT)
Because of their own awful form, the Wallabies have left their fate in the hands of World No.16 Portugal winning and denying the Fijians a bonus point.
The Portuguese just don’t have the size or forward muscle to dictate in the only area that could make that possible. The Georgians showed what was possible when they led Fiji with their forwards and defence to the fore.
The Fijians should romp through this one.
