The All Blacks v Springboks rivalry is one of the best known in sport. It has been pulsing away for over a century but rarely has a result been harder to pick than this Rugby World Cup final. The two heavyweights slug it out in Paris on Sunday morning (6am AEDT). Light rain showers are expected and that could have a major bearing on the result.
We tipped England as a $1.90 winner with +13.5-points start against South Africa in the semi-finals and suggested that ref Ben O’Keeffe would be a wildcard in the final result. Tick and tick.
What’s in store in the final?
2023 Rugby World Cup Final Betting Tips
New Zealand v South Africa
Sunday, Oct 29 Stade de France, Paris 6am (AEDT)
For the first time, both teams into the final have tasted defeat earlier in the tournament. The harder match schedule aids the All Blacks most of all. You could easily argue that the All Blacks are always the side most superior to average teams in world rugby. By extension, you could say they were ousted from the 2003 and 2007 tournaments by the first top side they met. Not so in France 2023. They have been toughened by elite lead-up games against France and Ireland and really do look to have tuned and upgraded areas of their game along the way. The Kiwis have all their best players in action and the one change to the starting side for the final, Brodie Retallick for Sam Whitelock, just means the latter being rotated in from the bench for a big chunk of the second half.
Flanker Sam Cane has been superb at the tournament. Likewise, winger Will Jordan. The sports bookies framed the Top Tournament Tryscorers market with him at the top and they got it right. He’s on eight tries and won't be headed.
The Springboks are excellent in defence and the key to victories over the All Blacks in 2022 (26-10) and 2023 (35-7) was the suffocating, brutal defence to keep the Kiwis to 10 points or fewer. You can talk about denying the Kiwis time and space but the Boks can actually do it. They did in the 1995 World Cup final when they kept Jonah Lomu and his vaunted All Blacks teammates tryless through 80 minutes plus extra-time.
Getting on the front foot through the forwards always gives a team a stride headstart in defence so the South African formula to dominate up front is something they firmly believe in.
They have picked a 7-1 bench which means seven forwards so the tactic is to sustain the power for 80 minutes. The sustained pack power worked against England in the semi-final with replacement prop Ox Nche and replacement lock RG Snyman being so influential.
The South Africans can squeeze some advantage at scrum time which would be huge in a tight finish.
The risk of course of a 7-1 bench is obvious. If halfback Faf de Klerk pulls a hamstring in the first five minutes, they have no specialist replacement.
This is a better South African side than the 2019 World Cup champions. They have more willingness to back the attacking spark of wingers Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse.
The weather. Any rain or slippery surface favours the Springboks because it brings more All Blacks’ handling errors into play with a slippery ball and slows the speed of the game. Equally, the Boks can kick and grind all day.
I still feel it is an All Blacks victory, a tight one but victory just the same with one or two more sparks of attacking brilliance.
Also Backing:
NZ/NZ – HT/FT ($2.50 at Ladbrokes)
Mark Telea Anytime Try ($2.37 at Ladbrokes)
England v Argentina
Saturday, Oct 28 Stade de France, Paris 6am (AEDT)
This is a “who cares?” fixture for many... a play-off for third between the beaten semi-finalists. The Argentinians are always looking to gain greater respect in world rugby and they could well have more to play for. That said, they are showing more fatigue than the English because they have used their main players more often throughout.
