A massive Sunday evening showdown to cap off round 17, as the Roosters host the Raiders at Allianz Stadium, with the winner likely to occupy a spot within the top 8 by week’s end. Will the Roosters be able to continue their push back towards the top of the table, or will the Raiders consolidate their position inside the top 8?
It's a huge game for both teams to close out the round, and we dissect it and provide our best bets below.
NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Raiders
Allianz Stadium, Sunday 25th June, 6:15pm (AEST)
The Roosters struggled to get by the Knights, however in a must win game away from home, where you lose your dominant half early, it really was an impressive win for the Roosters. Whilst their level was below what would normally be expected of a Roosters team, the grit shown will put them in good stead moving forward, as they come into a part of their schedule where they will be playing several teams inside the top 8, or on the cusp of the top 8, in what will all be highly important games.
The Raiders are off the bye, with their round 15 home loss to the Warriors a performance that will have had Ricky Stuart concerned. The Raiders were dominated through the middle, and lost at home by 22, despite two sin bins for the Warriors. Improvement needed coming off the bye.
The Roosters opened 4.5-point favourites after their last start win over the Knights, with the Raiders being favoured during the week by punters, bet into just 3.5-point underdogs. That is probably fair enough, and I make a fair spread around 3.5/4 points in this game.
The total opened 42.5, and hasn’t moved during the week. I make fair 40.5/41, so slight value on the under for me, however, probably not quite enough to make a play. Both teams are close to 50/50 when it comes to playing unders, with the Raiders (50%) and Roosters (42.9%) matches finishing under the total this season.
Where I would like to attack this particular matchup is in the margin betting. In the Roosters’ 7 wins this season, 6 of them have been by a margin of 1-12. Not to be outdone, in each of the Raiders’ 8 wins this season, they have won by a margin of 1-12. And if you take out the Roosters 14-0 victory over the Warriors in round 9, the highest margin by either of these teams this season has been 8 points. I love this matchup to be tight, and picking a winner is a matter of flipping a coin in my opinion, with the odds bang on.
Either team win by 1-10
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Raiders (+6.5) – The Roosters haven’t shown me enough just yet in attack to give me any real confidence that they can win by more than one score. I’ll take the Raiders to keep this one tight, whilst also giving them a decent shot at winning outright.
Daniel Tupou 1+ Try – The Raiders concede 42% of their tries down their right side, and with Tupou attacking on the left edge, the lanky winger is surely a great chance at a 4-pointer this week.
Under 47.5 Points – Tempted by the under 42.5 total in this game, but just don’t quite see the amount of value I’d want to pull the trigger. Buying up to 47.5 gives me that little bit of breathing space, and just tops up this Same Game Multi nicely.
SGM Odds: $6.25 at Picklebet
