Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 20th.
We’ve got 10 races on the card on what’s likely to be a very heavy track. It’s currently a Heavy 8 and there’s a stack of rain predicted on Saturday so look for the mudlarks!
Best Bet: Race 4 #4 High Bridge
Best Value Bet: Race 5 #2 Abdon
Bit of a guessing game here with six of the seven horses on debut and the heavy track to make things even more confusing. #6 Time To Reign is a close relation to She Will Reign, who was a dominant two-year-old and won the Golden Slipper on heavy ground. This filly won a trial easily on heavy ground at Warwick Farm so at $4.40 I’ll take the chance that she can win this on debut. #1 Covert Ops was well-backed at long odds on debut and only went down by a nose over this track and distance. There is some query over his ability on wet ground but he’s got the raceday experience and the runs on the board so he’ll be tough to run down. #8 Evening Slippers trialled well and the Waterhouse/Bott yard will have her tuned up, while Jason Collett takes the ride on Godolphin colt #3 Bivouac, who wasn’t flash at the trials behind Time To Reign.
Absolutely no desire to bet here at all. #1 Quackerjack produced back-to-back wins last prep but hasn’t gone close since. #2 California Concord has back-to-back wins at Newcastle and now comes to town for the Snowdens with Tommy Berry going on. Those are positive signs. #3 Orcein won a midweek maiden last start and the form from his run two starts ago is solid through Nicco Lad. He finds a very winnable race even though he comes out of a very weak race. #4 Lucky Helmet has back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Wyong. Again, weak races, but gets Collett on and finds a weak race. #5 Ulusaba comes off a dominant maiden win at Wyong and comes up favourite here. That was on a Soft 7 which is a positive sign for this race but a maiden at Wyong is hardly trusty form.
TIP: No bet
Tough Highway Handicap here and reluctant to bet with the dodgy form and wet surface. #7 Burning Crown has been smashed in betting on the back of two dominant wins at Gunnedah and Scone. Although his wins have been convincing, he’s yet to face a wet track and we often see horses coming off dominant wins in the country fail in Highways. The only horse that really appeals from a betting perspective is #14 Doctor On Ice at $9.50. He’s first up from a spell here and on debut last prep he bolted in by more than 4.5L on wet ground. He’s just had the one trial leading into this but this stable always has to be respected in these races, and this horse has run 4th in a Highway last time we saw him. #15 Handle The Truth is undefeated this prep and comes off a win in a 1200m Highway at Rosehill last start. Little bit different back to 1100m at Randwick today but his win last start was on heavy ground, so that’s a plus.
Two that stand out here. #1 Destiny’s Kiss shouldn’t be a $10 pop at all here. This is his bread and butter – 2400m at Randwick on a Heavy deck. He’s had 11 starts at this track and distance for six wins and three placings and has six wins on Heavy ground. The one he’s got to beat is #4 High Bridge though, who ran 4th in the G1 The Metropolitan last start which followed two dominant victories from his first two starts in Australia. Back in grade today, carries only 55kg and has a terrific record on wet ground. Watch the market on #6 Exoteric – the stablemate – who comes off a win in the Port Macquarie Cup.
#2 Abdon is a good each way chance here at $8.00 after another good run last start, as expected, behind stablemate Zourkhan. That was on heavy ground over this track and distance so despite the wide draw, a repeat of that performance should see him pretty competitive here. #8 Arraignment was only a nose behind Abdon in that race and carries the same weight in today’s race, so if Abdon is a chance then Arraignment has to be rated up there too at $11.
Pretty keen on two here. #7 Roosevelt comes off a dominant win at Warwick Farm in midweek grade, where he bolted in by 5.3L on the heavy 10 surface. Likely to get very similar conditions today and he can make the step up in grade here with the good barrier draw. The value in the race could be #8 The Tenor at $12. He resumed with a big win at Newcastle on Soft ground and even though that form is well below that of this race, his juvenile form saw him competitive in the Rosebud Prelude. He’s certainly in the right stable to be running well in a race like this and he’s bred to swim. #9 Diplomatico returned with a 4.8L win on the Kensington track and was a hugely expensive purchase as a juvenile. He’s some sort of query on the heavy ground given he’s never run on it previously but he’s another that is bred to handle it.
Talented mare #2 Pecans returns here and she’s got a terrific first up record with five top-two finishes from six starts. She’s also been successful on wet ground in the past so with two trials under the belt I’d expect her to be going close in this. She’s a $5.00 chance. Another in the race at a bit of value is #9 Resin at $8.00. She’s won four of her eight career starts and comes off a 3L win at Rosehill last start, which was on soft ground. Her first up run behind Soothing on Heavy ground was also very good, so third up today she should be hard to beat. She’s undefeated at the distance and draws well in gate 7. #3 Eckstein has to be respected on the back of a great win in Melbourne last start.
Competitive race. #2 Firsthand was sound first up and has two wins from four starts when second up, as well as three wins from five starts at the distance. Undefeated on soft ground so although he’s yet to race on heavy ground, he gives the indication he can handle it. #3 Crafty Cop was also sound first up and has two wins and two placings from five starts second up. He’s struggled at this track previously but does have a good record on heavy ground. #5 New Universe is first up into this with just one trial under the belt but he’s had two wins from three starts when first up previously and this is his best distance. His only start on heavy ground was a win and Jason Collett is a notable jockey booking for Waller. At $7.00 he’s worth having something on. #6 Maximus went close first up behind Soothing on heavy ground and backed that up with a good win last time out over this track and distance. Won third up last preparation and looks a great chance of winning again here. #7 Passage Of Time isn’t hopeless at double figure odds. He’s won two from three when first up, has won two from three on heavy ground and three from six at the distance.
Tough way to finish but I’ll stick with #15 Mahalangur who saluted first up in pretty convincing fashion at Warwick Farm. That indicated he’s up to better races than this, as he showed as a juvenile he might be. Down in weight to 53kg and his only start on wet ground was a win. #4 Don’t Give A Damn was 4th in The Kosciusko last start after settling three-wide without cover throughout the race. Both starts on heavy ground have been failures but he’s had excuses on both occasions so it’s hard to rule a line on that form. At his best, he’d win this. #5 Right Or Wrong is knocking on the door after consecutive runner-up finishes in some decent form races. Yet to race on heavy ground but has three wins from four starts on soft ground. #13 Beau Geste and #2 Karavali are both worth including.
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