NRL action kicks off a day later after a thrilling State of Origin on Wednesday night. With the representative season completed for another year, all attention will turn towards the run to the Finals. Just 7 games remain of the regular season and time is running out for teams to solidify a position in the Top 8. The opening match is exactly that with a desperate Raiders team hosting an underachieving Warriors side. It sets the stage for an exciting contest between two clubs who are desperate to keep their 2024 hopes alive. Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the action and assess how this match will play out.
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
GIO Stadium – Friday 19th July – 8pm (AEST)
Match Preview
It has been a long, rough trot for the Raiders who have won just 1 of their past 6 matches and are amid a 4-game losing streak. Their most recent loss was in Round 18 where they hosted the Knights. Down on key players, hopes were high that they could overcome their opponents. Despite starting the game well via a try in the 6th minute, they conceded a 10-6 HT deficit and seemingly struggled for momentum. Despite scoring in the second half and narrowing the gap to 16-12, they couldn’t amount any further points, failing to crack their opponent’s defensive line. Normally, averaging 10.4m per carry and making 788 PCM’s would set a strong platform for success. Unfortunately, they allowed 10.6m per carry and 877 PCM’s, which lead to 5 line breaks. This meant they were unable to build pressure on either side of the ball.
The Warriors have been equally as poor recently, winning just 1 of their past 4 matches. They too had the Bye in Round 19 to lament a Round 18 loss; however, they could’ve been far more impressed with their 13-12 loss to the Bulldogs on the road. With a case for being awarded a late penalty which would’ve given them a shot (PG) at victory, the Warriors were much improved on recent weeks, pushing their opponents in most areas. With a slightly larger share of possession (51%), they had a superior completion rate (78%), made 9.1m per carry and had 758 PCM’s. This also created 5 line breaks. Their 32 missed tackles weren’t ideal but it does indicate that this team is putting themselves into winning positions in matches.
Match Prediction
The Raiders have received positive news ahead of this game with halfback Fogarty and second rower Young named to return. That, on top of the key omissions of Nicoll-Klokstad and Montoya, has seen the home side posted as favourites ($1.60 vs $2.35). The home ground advantage will also be key; despite winning 3 of the past 5 against the Raiders at this ground, the Warriors have a 33% strike rate (Raiders 58%). The recent history is against the home side though, with the Raiders winning just one of the past five meetings between these two teams.
The Warriors appear more capable as a team. They have scored a higher average of points (20ppg vs 19ppg) and concede fewer points in defence (22ppg vs 25ppg). This will likely be a tight match between two sides that appear equal. The returning players for the Raiders give them an edge which they have sorely missed this season; it also provides experience, as well as a calm approach in attack. As has been stated in recent weeks, the Warriors appear a better attacking unit without Johnson; his absence shouldn’t be a concern but the stability offered by CNK will. This sways momentum back towards the home team, but the Raiders have stung punters before.
Confidence is low in both teams, so invest accordingly. Best to ‘sit on the fence’ and back this game to be decided by fewer than 2 converted tries. The average margin of victory in the past 5 matches is 8.8 points, with 3 games decided by fewer than 8 points. If you’re not taking the ‘Suggested Bet’ straight out, you may want to use it to anchor a multi.
Either Team by 12.5 points or less
$1.70 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
We’ve collaborated with exciting new bookmaker, QuestBet, to bring you a great value Same Game Multi for the opening game of each AFL & NRL round. Simply click this link or the image below to jump on our Raiders vs Warriors SGM.
The first option speaks for itself (see above). With the Raiders and Warriors conceding over 25 and 22ppg respectively, the points total is in danger. Harris-Tavita has been playing well at 5/8 lately and is always an attacking threat, especially with how well he takes the ball to the line. DWZ is the leading try scorer (9) at the Warriors for a reason and can finish a strong attacking move against the vulnerable edge of the Raiders.
