A contender for game of the week kicks things off on Super Saturday, as the Knights head to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Raiders, in a matchup with huge finals implications. These two sides met back in round 4 in Newcastle, with the Knights coming away 24-14 winners. Can the Raiders take revenge at home, or will the Knights continue their charge towards the top 8?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights
GIO Stadium, Saturday 29th July, 3:00pm (AEST)
The Raiders are coming off a golden point loss last week in Auckland when they went down 21-20 to the Warriors. The Raiders were better across the board statistically, so would have to be a little concerned that they were down 20-6 with less than 20 minutes remaining. They stormed back into the game with 3 late tries, but ultimately went down to a Shuan Johnson field goal.
The Knights are coming off a massive win in round 21, when they defeated the Storm in front of a parochial home crowd on Saturday afternoon, winning 26-18. That’s three straight wins for the Knights, who are pushing hard for an unlikely spot in the finals.
The Raiders opened 6.5-point favourites, and with last week’s win over the Storm fresh in bettor’s minds, the Knights have been bet heavily during the week, to where the Raiders are now just 3.5-point favourites. Whilst I agree with 6.5 being too many points based of my raw power ratings, I get a sense that the Raiders -3.5 won’t last, and bettors will come in to push this back to at least 4.5. I do see some value in the Raiders -3.5, especially given the Knights’ poor record on the road, where they have won 2, drawn 1, and lost 6 of their road games (2 wins against Tigers and Bulldogs), however I’ll look elsewhere for my best bet.
The total opened 44.5, and has been bet up to 45.5/46.5, depending on where you shop. I make a fair 45.5, so I see no value in the total right now. Both teams are in the middle third in the NRL in both points scored per game, and points conceded, whilst both teams are also around 50% for overs/unders this season.
Where I find the most value in this game then, is the margin. The Raiders have won 11 times this season, and in EVERY one of those wins, they have won by a margin of 1-12. Adding to that amazing stat, the Knights have lost 9 games this season, with only 3 of those being by 13+. My main concern with this bet would be a Knights upset victory, however I don’t see the value in an either side by 1-12 margin’ bet, so I’ll take the better value and trust the Raiders to get the job done at home.
Canberra Raiders (1-12)
$3.40 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Knights (+12.5) – As outlined above, I like the Knights to keep this within 12 points, and this covers if the Knights pull off the upset.
Dominic Young (1+ try) – Young has 19 tries this season in 17 games, the most of any player in the NRL. The Raiders right edge is its weakest, and Young should add to his tally here.
Albert Hopoate (1+ try) – Hoppa Jr will be attacking the right edge defence of the Knights, the side that has conceded 29 (44%) tries this season.
Bradman Best (1+ try) – Best has looked like a different player since making his debut for the Blues. It doesn’t look like he can be stopped close to the line, and another try here is on the cards.
SGM Odds: $12 at Picklebet
