It has been the talk of Queensland racing since last year’s winter carnival, and the Eagle Farm surface continues to dominate thinking for punters heading into this weekend’s Stradbroke Handicap.
The move from the wide expanses of Brisbane’s premier venue to the tight Doomben track next door has already had a major impact on betting according to Grant Palmer of Palmerbet. Pre-barrier draw favourite Clearly Innocent has been the big mover since the announcement of the final field on Wednesday.
“Clearly Innocent was easily our worst result after his great win in the Kingsford-Smith,” explained Palmer. “But they’ve gone completely off him after the barrier draw. The outside at Doomben is a very tough ask, especially compared to Eagle Farm.”
But the favourite isn’t the only class runner affected by the barrier draw. Lindsay Park’s talented three-year-old Derryn has also been ignored by the market despite getting into the race with only 53kgs.
While most connections and punters were more than happy to move from the lottery that is the Eagle Farm track, Mick Bell - trainer of Kingsford-Smith Cup runner-up Jungle Edge - has been one of the few opponents of the move. With no wins on dry surfaces compared to his eleven on soft and heavy, there are still doubts as to whether the gelding will start the race.
“Jungle Edge ticks a lot of boxes for us. He’s a great forward-running horse who is drawn perfectly in barrier seven, and he gets in very nicely at the weights compared to the favourite,” said Palmer.
“Even though he doesn’t have the greatest record in the dry, they would be mad to scratch him. If anything, the market has probably overreacted.”
Despite not having started since his disappointing 13th in the Kingston Town in Perth, Chris Waller-trained Mackintosh is the other runner punters have landed on in the race. Barrier one and his racing pattern has many backing an upset in the feature.
“Mackintosh just maps perfectly and punters have seen that. Even if he doesn’t get the lead outright, we know he can run a strong race all the way out to a mile which gives him a slight advantage over Jungle Edge.”
Currently at $8.00 for the win at Palmerbet, Palmer suggests include Mackintosh in their numbers.
“We will definitely be looking at leaders and he’s the obvious choice. But don’t leave out Jungle Edge, especially if there is some rain about.”
