The concluding game of NRL Super Saturday for 2024 will take place in Penrith as the Penrith Panthers host the Gold Coast Titans. With the Finals on the horizon, the Panthers will be wanting to avoid any major injuries, while also solidifying home ground advantage throughout the Finals. The Titans haven’t been up to standard this year but will take joy in spoiling the party. This NRL game promises to be an exciting fixture and Before You Bet is here to help with a thorough preview of the action ahead.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans
Penrith Park – Saturday 7th September – 7:35pm (AEST)
The Panthers easily accounted for the Rabbitohs last week 34-12, needing a win to bounce back from a poor display a week earlier against the Raiders. They started strongly, scoring in the 8th minute and were a class above in their 6-try performance. Their opponents’ points were nothing more than consolation. The difference was evident statistically too; with 55% possession and an 81% completion rate, they averaged 9.3m per carry, had 588 PCM’s and made 8 line breaks. The Panthers were just as strong in defence, conceding 1 line break and limiting their opponents to just 8m per carry.
The Titans tried hard in their road match against the Knights but lacked consistency. Despite scoring the opening try and appearing to increase the pressure on their opponents, they failed to build pressure and allowed good, attacking opportunities to slip by. It was an improved level of execution in attack; with 49% possession they completed at 85%, averaged 10.2m per carry and had 740 PCM’s. They were let down on the other side of the ball though, missing 47 tackles, conceding 8 line breaks and allowing 822 PCM’s. A lot will have to change in the off-season for this talented group to get closer to reaching their potential.
Verdict
The Panthers have named a strong squad for this game, acknowledging that this is a team which will need to continue to build momentum towards the Finals. Despite Cleary’s absence, Sorensen returns; the strength of their squad compared to their opponents is reflected in the odds ($1.11 vs $6.50). The loss of Fifita in the forwards on hampers their chances of performing well. The Panthers have won 10 out of the past 11 matches against the Titans, with the visitors only winning 33% of matches at this venue (vs Panthers 60%); the Panthers haven’t lost to the Titans at home since 2013 and the last time the Titans defeated the Panthers was Round 5, 2019.
This then becomes a decision of how much the Panthers win this game by.
The season averages have the teams close in attack (24ppg vs 21ppg); the Titans are capable on their day. Unfortunately, they are let down defensively and this is where the Panthers excel (16ppg vs 27ppg). Once they get rolling in this match, the visitors will be powerless to stop them. Remember, this is the same team which has conceded 30+ points in the past 4 weeks. The line (19.5) may not be enough to give them a chance in this contest. Only the Panthers ‘switching off’ and allowing their opponents into this contest will see the margin of victory narrowed.
Panthers -19.5
$1.90 (1.5 units)
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Total Points Over 50.5 - Despite the average total points in the past 5 matches sitting at 39.6 points, this game is expected to be a high scoring contest.
Turuva, To’o and Tago to score - As for the try scorers, in the order listed, they are the leading scorers this season for the Panthers. They know how to find the tryline and with Luai leading the way at 7, expect him to feed plenty of ball to his attacking weapons.
Combined Odds: $5.75 at Boombet
