The Prince of Penrith returns on Sunday afternoon, as the Panthers host the Dolphins in an NRL clash of two teams battling it out for a spot in the top 4. Whilst the Panthers get a welcome relief with the return of Nathan Cleary, they will still be without plenty of star power, with most, if not all their Origin contingent rested for this game. Two quality teams, should be a good one.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs The Dolphins
BlueBet Stadium, Sunday 21st July, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Panthers come into this round 20 clash off the bye, with their last start being a solid 14-6 road victory over the Broncos. It was a dominant display through the middle for the Panthers, who managed to run for 450 metres further than the Broncos, whilst missing just 27 tackles. James Fisher-Harris was monstrous for the Panthers, running for 192 metres into the teeth of the defence, and set the platform early for the Panthers to dominate field position throughout. They struggled in the redzone, and with yet another new halves pairing this weekend, we could be in for another clunky looking Panthers’ attack against the Dolphins.
Speaking of the Dolphins, they managed a solid 36-28 victory last Thursday night over the Rabbitohs at Kayo Stadium. The scoreline flattered to deceive the Rabbitohs, with the Dolphins leading 36-18 with just 6 minutes remaining in the contest. This, despite the Dolphins making 9 more errors than the Rabbitohs, and missing 19 more tackles. They were far more clinical when they had their chances, however Wayne Bennett will surely be concerned with the sides’ discipline given they face the three-time defending Premiers this weekend.
Match Preview
The Dolphins and Panthers have only met once in the Dolphins short time in the NRL, with the Panthers getting the better of the Dolphins 24-14 in round 20 last season at Kayo Stadium. The Panthers closed 11.5-point favourites, and whilst they shot out of the gates with three tries in the opening 17 minutes, without Cleary and Crichton kicking goals, all tries went unconverted. This kept the Dolphins within reach, and they managed to score the next three tries to lead 14-12, before a desperate Panthers managed two tries in the last 12 minutes to get the win. The total closed 44.5, and with some better goal kicking may have just snuck over.
Fast forward to almost a year ahead to the day, and the Panthers opened as 11.5-point favourites for this matchup. With the confirmation of Nathan Cleary’s return on Tuesday, the Panthers pushed outside two converted tries to now sit as 12.5-point favourites. I make the Panthers 11.5-point favourites, however given the uncertainty over so many of their biggest names due to Origin, it’s hard to make a number right now. I’d lean the Dolphins at +12.5, and believe if Luai, To’o, and Martin are ruled out, this number will close around -9.5/10.5.
As for the total, it opened 46.5 and has stayed at 46.5, with the under heavily juiced, indicating this total is moving south. I make a fair total 41.5, so once again I see decent value in the under here. Both teams are close to 50/50 when it comes to hitting unders and overs, however 46.5 is equal to the highest total the Panthers have been lined at all season. Their totals have slowly been going up; however, they average 37.25 total points per game this season. With Cleary playing his first game in over two months, I suspect their attack will be sluggish, so they will once again lean on their defence to get the two points.
Will keep this a low staking, as the ingredients are there for a higher scoring game, but I trust my numbers enough here for a small play.
Under 46.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
I Tago (1+ try) – There’s no way to put this nicely, but Izaak Tago has so far not lived up to the contract he signed with the Panthers earlier this season. He has scored 5 tries this season, but it has been more his defensive reads and errors at crucial times that has many a Panther fan asking why they re-signed Tago and let Crichton walk. But, with Cleary back on that right edge, expect Tago to look a whole lot better this week and score his first try since round 11.
J Bostock (1+ try) – The Panthers right side defence has been their Achilles heel all season, and with Bostock having a sizeable height advantage over Sunia Turuva, expect the Dolphins to head left all day.
Dolphins (+12.5) – Outlined above, I believe this game will close below the two converted tries, meaning the Dolphins with the 12.5-point start will be solid closing line value.
