The NRL 2026 decider is here and after an exciting season producing a raft of results, two teams are left to fight out rugby leagues ultimate prize. All attention will be on Homebush on Sunday evening and this game promises to be another exhilarating contest, with the Roosters taking on the Knights. With multiple story lines running through this match, Before You Bet is here to help make sense of everything amid the chaos. Here is a comprehensive look at the match ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Roosters vs Knights Prediction & Betting Tips: NRL Grand Final
At their best to produce their best
Walker’s return for the Preliminary Final last week marked the first time this season that the Roosters had fielded their full-strength team. It is no surprise that this coincided with a dominating performance, capturing a 36-20 road victory over the Dolphins. It quickly became evident that the week off didn’t benefit the home side as the Roosters dictated the terms on both sides of the ball. Leading 16-6 at HT, they commanded majority of the second half, with two garbage time tries narrowing their margin of victory. There is no doubt that the Roosters were the better team and it showed statistically. With 50% possession they completed at 85%, ran for 10.7m per carry, had 619 PCM’s, and 8 line breaks. Scrambling defensively, they missed 32 tackles but were physical in this area, allowing 8.3m per carry and just 4 line breaks. It was a statement victory and one that shows they are peaking at the right time of the season.
The fairytale run continues
With every reason to concede victory, the Knights lifted above the numerous challenges they face to reignite the passion of an entire town with their 22-14 victory over the Panthers. Competing strongly and scoring the first, they Knights trailed 14-6 at HT and faced the prospect of playing the entire second half with just 12 men following the dismissal of Crossland. Amazingly, they went on to score 3 tries while keeping their opponents scoreless, spurred on by some amazing individual efforts. Leading the way for them was their captain Ponga, who single-handedly reflected the attitude of the team with attacking and defensive displays of brilliance. It was a disciplined performance also as they completed at 81% with just 46% possession, made 9.3m per carry, had 4 line breaks, and 416 PCM’s. Resolute in defence, they missed 32 tackles but allowed only 2 line breaks while absorbing 8.9m per carry and 577 PCM’s. This performance, when considering the importance and circumstances, is as remarkable as they come.
Stats that matter
- These two sides have played twice this season, with the Roosters winning both fixtures. They were victorious 38-24 in Round 7 at home and 23-22 on the road in Round 21. Interestingly, Ponga was absent for the Knights in both matches.
- The Roosters dominate the Knights in head-to-head matches, winning 17 of the past 20 games against them.
- The Roosters have a 48% strike rate at this ground with the Knights winning 50% of matches. Their win percentage isn’t much different in 2026 either, with the Roosters winning 67% of matches at the Knights 63%.
- In the past 5 games between these two sides, only 1 game has been decided by more than 4 points, with the average margin of victory sitting at 4.6 points. Despite their past two games totalling above 55 points, the average total points in the same number of matches is 42.6 points.
- The Roosters are the superior team on both sides of the ball this season. They score an average of 26ppg and concede just 20ppg defensively. The Knights are similar in attack, scoring 25ppg but concede slightly more points at 23ppg.
Consistency and defence win competitions
The Knights have been spirited to date on their Finals run. Not only have they won each of their Finals matches to date as underdogs, but they have also forced opponents to play a style which is unfamiliar to capture victory. Their defence has been resolute. This will be yet another challenge for them and on face value, it appears beyond their capabilities. The Roosters have a team that is littered with stars across the field and they have developed a style of play that is relentless in attack, while also capable of absorbing pressure; the same can be said of the Knights but it is how their opponents counter these moments that is the difference.
Had Crossland been available, there would’ve been strong support for the underdogs. Even with Ponga’s inclusion for the first time this year against the Roosters, he can only manage so much on his own. Holbrook will need to piece together a game plan which targets the Roosters weaknesses and given how strong they have been this season – and the fact that they are only now reaching their peak – it remains unknown as to who can combat their strengths. The Knights have such a chance, and the expected wet weather could swing momentum at times, while the Roosters will keep their opponents in the game but ultimately, they are the favourites for a reason and should capture victory.
Roosters -7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Roosters vs Knights Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points under 42.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Best to score – forget the fact that he hasn’t scored in his past 5 NRL games because Best loves facing off against the Roosters. He has scored a try in each of his past 3 games against them and will again be at his best on the left edge.
Leg 3 = Tedesco to score – he is crucial to the success of his team, and you can expect the Roosters’ captain to be involved in everything. He also enjoys playing the Knights with 5 tries from his past 4 games against them.
NRL Grand Final Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
From 2019 to 2024, a player wearing jersey number 4 or 9 have scored first in all Grand Final matches, with the 2 most recent being hookers. That was broken last year when Mariner scored first. Players in the outside backs (numbers 2-5) have scored first 9 times since 2011, fullbacks have scored twice with 4 forwards (9 – three – and 12) crossing for the first try. For the season, the Roosters’ leading try scorers are Nawaqanitawase (20), Tupou & Toia (15), and Tedesco & Smith (12). They have scored 42% of tries on their left edge this season. The Knights have Marzhew (24), Young (23), and Sharpe & Hunt (13). They have an equal split between their left and right edge this season.
Roosters
Best = Tupou @ $8 at Ladbrokes
Value = Smith @ $15 at Ladbrokes
Knights
Best = Marzhew @ $11 at Neds
Value = Best @ $19 at Neds
Total Match Points
The average total match points in Grand Finals since 2011 is 34. The total points average in the past 5 matches between these two sides is 42.6 but it’s interesting to note that 3 of the 5 matches have totalled 42 points or less; blowout totals of 55 and 62 have increased the average. Total Points Under 42.5 looks the play.
Margin
Just 5 times since 2011 has there been a winning margin of 13+ points, with the average sitting at 9.7 points. It is a new era in the NRL with the 6-again rule change and a fast game has increased the fatigue, leading to higher points totals. Defence does win premierships though so if the script mimics 2026, it will be a 13+ margin but only to the Roosters. The Knights appear unable to put a large total on their opponents so, if you like them, take them to win by a 1-12 margin.
Clive Churchill Medal Winner
It is no surprise that the winner of the ‘Man of the Match’ usually comes from a player in the spine. Since 2011, halfbacks have saluted 5 times, fullbacks 4 times and 5/8’s winning twice. Interestingly, when not won by a player in the spine, a back rower (11-13) is the only other position to win, with the other 4 since 2011 awarded to these players. Considering the subjective nature of this award, it might be worth avoiding. If you do want to invest, no more than 0.5-1 units should be used.
Roosters
DCE had the ball on a string last week and while Walker gathered more headlines, the calm and composed approach of the veteran half is essential to the success of the Roosters. In the middle, Robson and Radley lead the way and will be integral to tightening up the middle and ensuring the Knights so not go through the middle. A real outsider though is Collins, who has quietly been going about his craft each week and is a key member of the pack.
Best = DCE @ $8 at Ladbrokes
Value = Collins @ $34 at Ladbrokes
Knights
You cannot go past Ponga and the import role he has for his team. He is undoubtedly the premier pick for this team should they win. There are a host of back rowers and middle forwards that will have an impact on this result. At the top of the list is Manuleleua, who has developed a reputation of a dominant player on both sides of the ball this season.
Best = Ponga @ $7 at Neds
Value = Manuleleua @ $26 at Neds
Roosters vs Knights Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 4th October
Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Time: 7:30pm (AEST)
Odds: Roosters $1.44 vs Knights $2.80
Line: -7.5
Points: 42.5
Where to Watch the NRL Grand Final
Watch the Storm vs Broncos match live on Channel 9.
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