Thursday Night Football takes us to Lambeau Field in Week 3 as the Green Bay Packers play their first home game of the season against the winless Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay improved to 1-1 with a hard-fought 20-17 overtime victory over the New York Jets last weekend, while Atlanta enters at 0-2 and desperately searching for a response after an ugly 34-3 defeat against Carolina.
Check out our NFL tips below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL Week 3 Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Betting Tips
10:15am AEST, Friday September 25
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay avoided an 0-2 start with an overtime victory against the Jets in Week 2, although Matt LaFleur will still be looking for significant improvement from his offence. Jordan Love threw for just 145 yards in New York after producing 387 yards in the season opener, while the Packers rank towards the bottom of the NFL in offensive EPA through the opening two weeks. The absence of Josh Jacobs has placed even more responsibility on Love and the passing game to generate points.
Christian Watson has emerged as Love's leading target, catching 10 passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns from 19 targets through two games. His importance should only increase this week with Jayden Reed ruled out due to a neck injury. Green Bay has also been excellent against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry through two games, which presents a difficult matchup for an Atlanta offence heavily reliant on Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's season has started disastrously, with the Falcons dropping their opening two games by a combined score of 54-16. Cooper Rush struggled badly at quarterback before being replaced by rookie Jack Strand during last week's 34-3 loss to Carolina, but there is finally some positive news with Michael Penix Jr. cleared to return and start at Lambeau Field.
Penix gives Atlanta considerably more upside through the air, particularly with Drake London and Kyle Pitts at his disposal, but the Falcons still need to find a way to get Robinson involved against an excellent Green Bay run defence. Robinson has rushed for 83 and 72 yards across the opening two weeks while also remaining heavily involved as a receiver. Atlanta's defence has at least been strong against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, meaning the pressure will again fall heavily on Love to move Green Bay through the air.
Prediction
The return of Penix makes Atlanta more dangerous than it was during the opening two weeks, but asking him to immediately turn this offence around on a short week at Lambeau Field is a significant challenge. The Falcons have produced the worst offensive EPA per play in the NFL through two weeks and are coming off a game in which they managed just three points against Carolina.
Green Bay has hardly been convincing itself, but this looks like an ideal opportunity for the Packers to find some rhythm in their home opener. Their ability to contain the run should force Penix to shoulder plenty of responsibility in his first game back from a serious knee injury, while Love has a favourable opportunity against an Atlanta defence that struggled to contain Bryce Young and Carolina last weekend. Green Bay should be able to gradually take control and pull away enough to cover the touchdown spread.
Green Bay Packers -4.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Player Prop
Christian Watson Over 6+ Receptions
Watson has quickly established himself as Love's number one target, drawing 19 targets through the opening two weeks and turning them into 10 receptions for 188 yards and three touchdowns. He caught six passes from eight targets in Week 1 before adding another four catches from 11 targets against the Jets, while playing close to 90 percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps last weekend. With Reed ruled out, Watson should again command a healthy target share against an Atlanta defence that allowed Tetairoa McMillan to catch five passes for 101 yards and Jalen Coker to record eight receptions for 66 yards in Week 2. Five catches looks very achievable given the volume Watson is currently receiving.
Christian Watson 6+ Receptions
$2.30(1 Units)
