Day 4 at Wimbledon and Round 2 continues. Ace has found value in a match involving the 2025 Wimbledon Champ, as she takes on the finalist from 2021. Check out his preview and best bet below and good luck to everyone following!
Wimbledon Day 4 Betting Tips
Karolina Pliskova vs Iga Swiatek
Thursday July 2, approx. 10:30pm AEST
A match-up worthy of a WTA final a few years ago, as Iga Swiatek takes on Karolina Pliskova for a place in the 3rd round at Wimbledon.
It has been a pretty impressive run of form for Pliskova in her return to the tour. After missing more than a year with multiple ankle surgeries, Pliskova returned to the top level at the Australian Open ranked outside the Top 1000. The Czech has played a very careful schedule and performed well, with a win today likely to put her back within the Top 50 in the world. It was a solid performance in round 1, with the Czech defeating Valentova in straight sets. However, the match-up with the inexperienced Valentova was certainly a more favourable one than the match-up we are seeing here today.
Although the scoreboard didn’t perhaps reflect a strong win, I thought Swiatek took some steps in the right direction in her win over Taylor Townsend in round 1. You can break that match down into a couple of key periods:
1. Swiatek held from 0/40 in her first service game, saved a handful of break points, then dominated the rest of the first set.
2. Swiatek struggled for a period with her serve and the aggressive return positioning from Townsend, up until early in the 3rd set
3. Although the serve went a little wayward early in set 3, Swiatek was very solid on the return of serve when it mattered.
I don’t think Pliskova has the movement on the grass to be able to put a similar type of pressure on the Swiatek service games. Swiatek should also have some confidence from having a significant edge in the head to head between the pair.
To me, this match reads as one where Pliskova will need to serve at an exceptionally high first serve percentage to be competitive here. There is a risk that Swiatek does go off the boil again, like we saw in round 1 (and the emotional response after her win), however I am willing to lean into the fact this match-up presents less challenges than Townsend in round 1, and I am not sure that Pliskova should be shorter in the market in comparison.
To me, the -4.5 game handicap for Swiatek here looks incredibly solid, so I will be making a 2.5 unit selection.
Swiatek -4.5 games
$1.80 (2.5 Units)
