Championship Sunday brings the NFL down to its final four, with two rivalry-fuelled showdowns standing between contenders and a place in the Super Bowl. In the AFC, New England and Denver clash at altitude in a battle of defensive dominance and quarterback composure, while the NFC is decided by a third meeting between Seattle and Los Angeles, where familiarity, firepower and fine margins promise another classic.
NFL Week Conference Championships Betting Tips
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Monday 7.00am (AEDT)
Broncos
Denver enters the AFC Championship at 15–3, powered by one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in football. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks during the regular season with 68 and ranked second in pressure rate, a formula that carried over into last week’s divisional round win over Buffalo. Even against Josh Allen, Denver consistently collapsed the pocket and forced uncomfortable throws, showing once again that their defense can dictate games regardless of opponent.
However, the defining storyline is under center. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is out for the remainder of the postseason after suffering a broken ankle, handing the reins to veteran backup Jarrett Stidham. Sean Payton is expected to craft a conservative, protection-heavy game plan that asks Stidham to manage the game, avoid mistakes and capitalise on red-zone opportunities. Denver’s path hinges on defense, field position and trusting Payton’s experience in championship moments.
Patriots
New England arrives in Denver at 16–3 overall and winners of 14 of its last 15 games, shaking off an early-season stumble to become the AFC’s most consistent team. While MVP candidate Drake Maye has been outstanding throughout the year, it has been the Patriots’ defense that has truly driven this playoff run. Over the past two games, New England has forced six turnovers from Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud while relentlessly controlling the interior of the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots’ defensive front has been dominant, with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore anchoring an interior unit that collapses pockets from the inside out. That pressure has allowed the secondary to play aggressively and limit explosive plays. Offensively, New England has been comfortable playing within structure, trusting Maye to make timely throws rather than carry the game on his own. Balance, discipline and situational execution have defined this stretch.
Prediction
This sets up as a lower-scoring, physical contest where every possession matters. Denver’s defense and home-field advantage will keep this tight, and Sean Payton’s ability to scheme around Stidham should allow the Broncos to remain competitive well into the second half. Expect Denver to lean heavily on defense and field position while trying to steal points through efficiency rather than volume.
Ultimately, New England’s defensive depth and quarterback stability give them the edge. The Patriots’ ability to generate interior pressure against a quarterback who hasn’t seen live action in two years feels decisive, and Drake Maye has shown he can deliver in fourth-quarter moments. I’m backing New England to grind this out and punch its Super Bowl ticket, with the Patriots winning 24–14 in a game defined by defense, discipline and one late scoring drive that puts it out of reach.
Under 42.5
$1.98 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Monday 10.30am (AEDT)
Seahawks
Seattle arrives at the NFC Championship riding a wave of confidence after obliterating San Francisco 41–6 in the divisional round. It was a statement performance that reinforced just how dangerous the Seahawks can be when everything clicks, particularly at home. Seattle earned the NFC’s top seed for a reason, and Lumen Field has once again proven to be one of the league’s most difficult environments, especially in January.
Offensively, the Seahawks continue to live with Sam Darnold’s aggression. He finished the regular season with 25 touchdown passes but also threw 14 interceptions, and that volatility has defined Seattle’s ceiling. When Darnold is decisive and protected, the Seahawks can score in bunches. When pressure forces him into rushed decisions, games tighten quickly. Against a Rams defense that has repeatedly baited him into mistakes, managing those moments will be crucial.
Rams
The Rams enter the championship game battle-tested and unafraid of the stage. Matthew Stafford is chasing his second NFC title since arriving in Los Angeles, and the Rams have now reached this point for the first time since their Super Bowl run in 2021. Their playoff path has been built on offensive execution and timely defensive takeaways, forcing four interceptions across their first two postseason games.
Puka Nacua remains the focal point of everything Los Angeles does offensively. He was unstoppable against Seattle in their most recent meeting, piling up 225 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and the Rams have only expanded his role since then. Beyond the passing game, Nacua has been used creatively as a runner, adding another layer to an offense that thrives on versatility and mismatches. Expect Stafford to lean heavily on his top target again in the biggest game of the season.
Prediction
Everything about this matchup suggests another razor-thin contest. The two regular-season meetings were decided by a combined three points, and both teams were nearly identical in yardage across those games. Seattle’s home-field advantage and defensive energy will matter, and the Seahawks are more than capable of landing punches early and late.
But the Rams feel built for chaos. Stafford’s experience, Nacua’s matchup-breaking ability and a defense that has consistently forced turnovers in the playoffs give Los Angeles the edge when margins shrink. Expect points, momentum swings and late drama. I see this going the distance, with Seattle forcing overtime before the Rams find a way to finish it. My pick is Rams 24, Seahawks 21, sending Los Angeles back to the Super Bowl in a thriller worthy of the rivalry.
Rams to win
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
