This AFC East clash kicks off Week 3 under the lights as the Buffalo Bills welcome the Miami Dolphins to Highmark Stadium. For Buffalo, it’s an opportunity to extend their dominance over a division rival. For Miami, it could be a chance to quiet doubts, make a statement, and jumpstart a season that has yet to meet expectations. Primetime, rivalry, injured players, big stakes, it’s everything you want in Thursday Night Football.
NFL Week 3: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Friday 10.15am (AEST)
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo enters this game on a nice 2-0 run. After a gritty opener, they put up a convincing win over the Jets in Week 2, showing they can lean on the run game, protect the football, and make defensive stands when needed. Josh Allen continues to be the engine, dynamic, crafty, and dangerous, especially in big moments. The Bills have also been impressive on home turf against Miami in recent seasons, which gives them an added edge in this one.
Injuries are creeping in, though. Key defensive pieces are dinged up, with Ed Oliver expected to miss time and Matt Milano sidelined as well. Taron Johnson and Shaq Thompson are limited, Cam Lewis is questionable, and others are working through their own issues. On the flip side, Allen suffered a broken nose but is cleared to play, and he will be wearing a clear visor for extra protection.
Miami Dolphins
Miami enters the matchup at 0-2, having not yet found a win but certainly looking to avoid early season panic. Their offense, led by Tua Tagovailoa and weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, has shown flashes but hasn’t been consistent. The Dolphins have struggled to impose physicality, especially against strong defensive fronts, and controlling time of possession seems to be an area they need to improve if they want to win games like this one.
On the injury front, Miami isn’t without concerns. Cornerback Storm Duck and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu are dealing with issues that have limited their practice time. Jaylen Waddle has some lingering shoulder trouble, raising concerns about whether he is fully healthy. Other players have been limited in practice as well, which could impact how deep their rotations and coverage schemes are. The short week turnaround, combined with these injury issues, could strain the Dolphins' ability to respond to Buffalo’s physicality.
Prediction
This feels like the perfect setup for Buffalo to deliver a statement win. The Bills have looked sharp on both sides of the ball, and with Josh Allen healthy enough to command the offense, they should be able to put Miami under constant pressure. Even with a few injuries on defense, Buffalo’s depth and home-field advantage make them overwhelming favorites. Expect them to dictate tempo early, build momentum through the run game and Allen’s improvisation, and force Miami into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy approach that plays right into Buffalo’s hands.
For the Dolphins, the margin for error is razor-thin, and on a short week it’s hard to see them keeping pace. If they can’t establish a consistent run game or protect Tagovailoa against Buffalo’s pass rush, this could get out of hand quickly. The prediction here is a lopsided result: Buffalo by three touchdowns or more, something in the ballpark of 38 to 14, with the Bills reminding everyone that they’re still the team to beat in the AFC East.
Bills -12.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Player Prop
Shakir has become Josh Allen’s most reliable target, especially with the Bills moving away from having a single dominant WR and instead spreading it around. He led the team in receptions last season and has built a lot of trust in the offense.
In a game where Buffalo is likely to be ahead, the Dolphins may play more zone or drop into coverage to try to limit big plays, which tends to lead to more short/mid range passes, areas where Shakir thrives. He should see consistent targets and should be able to hit that 5+ catch number, especially if Buffalo leans on high-percentage passing.
Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions
$2.20
