We’re down to the final four at the 2025 Asia Cup with semifinal action set to take place on Saturday night. The second of the semi’s will see the red-hot Australia take on Iran from 2am AEST. We bring you our preview and best bet for the clash below!
FIBA Asia Cup Australia vs Iran Semifinal Preview & Tip
Aussies are dominating
Australia has stormed into the semi-finals, reinforcing their status as the tournament favourites with an unblemished record. The Boomers have been in a class of their own, cruising through the group stage before dismantling the Philippines with a commanding 84-60 victory in the quarter-finals. Their campaign has been defined by overwhelming dominance on both ends of the floor, with their depth proving too much for opponents to handle. Australia's fluid offence and stifling team defence have allowed them to secure comfortable, large-margin wins in every game, and they arrive at the penultimate stage looking virtually unstoppable in their quest for a third consecutive title.
Iran pulled off the unthinkable
Iran has also reached the semi-finals with an undefeated record, but their journey was nearly derailed in a thrilling quarter-final. "Team Melli" engineered one of the greatest comebacks in Asia Cup history, overcoming a massive 21-point deficit to stun Chinese Taipei 78-75. The dramatic victory showcased their incredible resilience and fighting spirit, but it also exposed moments of vulnerability. While they have proven they can win under immense pressure, their path has been far less serene than Australia's, relying on individual heroics and a frantic fourth-quarter surge to keep their championship hopes alive.
Recent H2H history
This clash is a rematch of the 2017 FIBA Asia Cup final, where Australia defeated Iran to claim their first-ever title in the region. The Boomers have generally had the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings, holding a 4-2 advantage in their last six encounters. While Iran did manage a win during the 2019 World Cup qualifiers on home soil, Australia has consistently performed better on the bigger stages. This history adds another layer of intensity to what is already a high-stakes encounter between two of Asia's basketball powerhouses.
Who progresses to the final?
While Iran's comeback was inspiring, it's unlikely they can afford a similar slow start against the clinical Australians. The Boomers' consistent dominance throughout the tournament contrasts sharply with Iran's near-elimination. Australia's superior depth and relentless defensive pressure should prevent Iran from finding the rhythm they eventually discovered against Chinese Taipei. Expect the Boomers to impose their will early and maintain control throughout the contest, ultimately securing a decisive victory and comfortably covering the -19.5 point spread on their way to the final.
