The NFL is back for another full slate, the last before the bye rounds kick off in Week 5. We have a solid 21-16-1 record in our Monday betting tips and we’ll be hunting more winners with the 14 game slate in Week 4 below.
NFL Week 4 Monday Preview & Betting Tips
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Monday 4am (AEDT)
The Browns look like one of the hottest defences in the league at the moment after strong wins in Week 1 and 3, keeping their opponents to just three points in each of those games. Sandwiched in between was a tough road loss to the Steelers in a weird Monday night football game, one that I’m happy to chalk up as a simple lapse from the Browns. They are back at home on Monday against divisional opponents in the Ravens.
Baltimore are also 2-1 on the season but are coming off a loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, going down by 3 points in overtime at home. The Ravens rank in the top half of the league in both offence and defence through the opening three rounds and star quarterback Lamar Jackson has looked in solid form to cover for a mounting injury list at the running back position.
The Browns start as 2.5 point favourites at home and I like them at that line. Their defence has looked basically on another level to any other team in the league so far this season. They have allowed just 163.7 total yards per game through three games, which is a full 90 yards less than the next best team in the league. With injury issues at RB, I think the Ravens struggle to move the ball here.
Betting Stats
- Lamar Jackson has been outstanding on the road throughout his career, maintaining a 20-9-2 record against the spread.
- The Browns are just 6-14 against the spread in divisional games under current coach Kevin Stefanski.
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Monday 7.25am (AEDT)
There are some monster games on the Monday slate in Week 4 and this matchup between two of the bigger teams in the league is one of them. The Patriots bounced back from losses in the first two weeks to defeat the New York Jets in Week 3 by five points at home. The Patriots are probably better than their 1-2 record suggests so far, given they have played against two top tier teams in the Eagles and Dolphins, who are both undefeated.
The Cowboys looked like the best team in the league in the first two weeks of the season but were disappointing in a shock 12 point upset to the Cardinals on the road. The offence was uncharacteristically bad for the Cowboys, putting up just 16 points in the loss after averaging 35.0 in the first two games.
Think the Cowboys bounce back at home here. The loss on the weekend has brought this line into a really manageable 6.5 points, I like them to win by a touchdown or more. They are the best team in the league against the spread over the last two seasons and allow just 12.7 points per game this season.
Betting Stats
- Since 2021, the Cowboys are an impressive 8-1 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss.
- The Patriots are 14-7 against the spread in their last 21 games as underdogs but just 3-3 since Tom Brady left.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Monday 11.20am (AEDT)
The Chiefs were dominant at home against the Bears in Week 3, recording a 41-10 win to move to 2-1 on the season. The dominant performance was far from the story of the night at Arrowhead, however, as Taylor Swift claimed all headlines appearing in Travis Kelce’s private box to watch the game. Will Swift be in attendance again in New York? Should that move the betting line in the Chiefs favour?
All jokes aside, the Chiefs look to have found their groove offensively on the weekend but more importantly, their defence looks the real deal. They have kept their opponents to just 9.5 points per game over the past two games and are now embarking on a winnable stretch of five games before facing the Dolphins at home in Week 9.
They start as 9.5 point favourites on the road and I like them at that line. The Jets defence may still be extremely good but they just have no way of scoring the ball at the moment. After losing Aaron Roders in the opening plays of the season, they have managed to put up just 14.0 points per game this season, the fewest in the league. I think the Jets score at least 25 here, which should be enough to cover the 9.5 point line.
Betting Stats
- Patrick Mahomes is a ridiculous 13-0 outright as a road favourite of at least seven points.
- In their last five games after a loss, the Jets are 0-5 against the spread.
Other Tips
Falcons at Jaguars - Over 43.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Dolphins at Bills - Over 53.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Steelers at Texans - Steelers -3 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Rams at Colts - Rams +1.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Vikings at Panthers - Vikings -4 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Buccaneers at Saints - Saints -3 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Commanders at Eagles - Over 43.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Broncos at Bears - Bears +3.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Bengals at Titans - Bengals -2.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Raiders at Chargers - Over 48.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Cardinals at 49ers - Cardinals +14 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
