A full day of playoff NFL football kicks off on Monday morning, with the third instalment of an AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ruled out due to concussion symptoms, rookie 7th round pick Skylar Thompson will start his first career playoff game against the juggernaut Bills. Next up, the New York Giants head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, in a replay of their week 16 clash, which the Vikings won 27-24. Finally, the Baltimore Ravens travel to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
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NFL 2022-23: Wild Card Monday Preview & Betting Tips
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
New Era Field, Monday 5:00am AEDT
The Dolphins and Bills have played twice this season, with their most recent matchup in week 15 in Buffalo, which the Bills won 32-29. The Bills closed 7-point favourites in that game, and after leading 21-13 at half time, appeared to be a deserving 7-point favourite. However, the Dolphins in the 3rd quarter put on 13 unanswered points to take the lead 26-21. It took some great play down the stretch by Josh Allen for the Bills to get home, showing the Dolphins were very much a match for the Bills.
The problem this week for the Dolphins is at quarterback. Rookie Skylar Thompson will start, and he has been nothing short of horrible. In his two starts, he has thrown for 318 yards on 39/64 (60.9%), 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. Those numbers are poor when you consider Head Coach Mike McDaniel has been game planning for Thompson to just dump the ball off to receivers underneath. He doesn’t appear to be NFL ready, and the Bills should absolutely annihilate the Dolphins this week and move on to the divisional round.
Alternate Bet: Buffalo Bills (-13) - $1.91 @ Betfair (1u)
Miami Dolphins (team total) under 14.5 points
$1.82 (2 units)
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Monday 8:30am AEDT
This is the tightest market of any of the Wild Card weekend games for mine, with the number opening at Vikings -3 and staying there basically all week, with the number currently sitting at a juiced +3 for the Giants. My number is close to Vikings -3 (-2.9), so picking a side in this one is impossible. NB: If the Vikings get to -2.5 at $1.91 this will be a bet for me
The total of 48 is the highest of the weekend, and again, I agree. I’d lean the over, however being a playoff game and with both teams having played so recently, I can’t get to a bet. When they played on Christmas Day, the game ended 27-24 (51), however 28 of the 51 points were scored in the 4th quarter.
Speaking of that game, the Giants were the better team statistically, however lost the turnover battle 2-0. If the Giants can take care of the football, I would not be surprised in the slightest to see the underdog win here.
But alas, I can’t make a bet on the side or total. So, we’re going a bit off Broadway for our bets here. I can see both teams winning this game by 3 a lot of the time. A one score game has to be a huge chance, and overtime is a very real possibility. So, for my main bet, I’m suggesting either team to win by 7 or less. The odds suggest this happens 50% of the time, I have it more like 65% of the time. Great odds, and we will take it.
The alternate bet, a real flier, plays on the same premise. This is going to be close, and there’s every chance we go to overtime.
Either team to win by 7 or less
$1.95 (2.5 units)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium, Monday 12:15pm AEDT
This will be the third showdown between these AFC North rivals this season, with the most recent being in week 18 (last week). The Bengals closed 11.5-point favourites, and failed to cover, winning 27-16. The spread for this week’s game opened Bengals -6.5, with the slim possibility of Lamar Jackson’s return making the books have to be careful not to give the Ravens too many points. Well, Jackson has once again been ruled out, with the number up around 8/8.5 with still more uncertainty around the Ravens’ quarterback situation.
Tyler Huntley has once again been named on the injury report for the Ravens, however he was a full participant at practice today. If Huntley is confirmed to start, I love the Ravens to cover in this matchup. The Ravens’ defence has been brilliant over the second half of this season, and they seem to have learnt how to slow Joe Burrow down. Burrow only managed 432 yards on 49/77 passes, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception against the Ravens this year, which statistically is 2 of the worst 3 performances he’s had throwing the ball all season.
If Tyler Huntley starts, and you can wait to hear the decision, the Ravens is the bet at anything +7.5 or more. Because I have to make a pick now, I’m hoping Huntley starts, and I’ll take the Ravens to keep this one tight and cover, but low staking as the QB situation has not resolved.
Baltimore Ravens (+8.5)
$1.91 (1.5 units)
