A massive Thursday Night Football clash greets us in week 8, with two teams who were high on everyone’s potential Super Bowl winners list heading into the season. The AFC North leading Baltimore Ravens (4-3) head to the NFC South leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4), with the loser potentially giving up the lead in their respective division. The Bucs have only managed 1 win in their past 5 games, and the panic alarm is starting to sound. If they weren’t in such a poor division, there would be a genuine concern that Tom Brady might miss the playoffs. The Ravens, despite only having one more win than the Bucs, have looked competitive in all their games so far. They’ve also had a far tougher schedule than the Bucs, and realistically should be 6-1.
Monday Night Football was a disaster for many bettors, and I was no different. The Bears destroyed the Patriots, and the totals flew over, resulting in an 0-2 game for our best bets. We now sit at 10-1-7 (+4.93u) for the season in prime time. Disappointing that our biggest outlay for weeks resulted in our first loss in weeks.
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Betting Tips
Raymond James Stadium, Friday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Ravens did the opposite of what they’ve been doing for most of the year, winning despite worse stats. They benefitted from winning the turnover battle with the Browns 2-1, however only managed 4 yards per play and 5.9 yards per pass, both significantly lower than the Browns. Lamar Jackson has been down on form and appears to be struggling with a hip complaint. Jackson threw for only 120 yards on 16 pass attempts last week and ran the ball 10 times for 59 yards. The Ravens will need to be far better in attack this week against a fired-up Buccaneers defence.
Speaking of the Bucs, they were completely embarrassed by the worst team in football last week, as they were effectively shut out by the 2-5 Carolina Panthers, losing 21-3. The Panthers ran all over the Bucs, rushing for 173 yards on 27 carries, with several explosive runs tearing the Bucs to shreds. If the Panthers can do this, the Bucs will surely be concerned about the run game of the Ravens, who currently have the 7th best rushing attack by DVOA. In a crazy statistic, Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns in only 1 game this season, against a Chiefs defence that was playing prevent defence for ¾ of the game. Is he washed?
Injury Report
Baltimore Ravens
David Ojabo (OLB) – OUT
J.K Dobbins (RB) – OUT
Marcus Williams (FS) – OUT
Michael Pierce (NT) – OUT
Kyle Fuller (CB) – OUT
Ja’Wuan James (OT) – OUT
Rashod Bateman (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Mark Andrews (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
Calais Campbell (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Gus Edwards (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
K.J. Britt (LB) – OUT
Logan Ryan (DB) – OUT
Ryan Jensen (C) – OUT
Aaron Stinnie (OG) – OUT
Mike Evans / Julio Jones / Russell Gage (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Akiem Hicks (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Carlton Davis / Sean Murphy-Bunting / Rashard Robinson (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Shaq Mason (OG) – QUESTIONABLE
Cameron Brate (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
Antoine Winfield Jr (SS) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
This number has moved hard against the Bucs after their performance last week. The look ahead line showed the Bucs as a 3-point favourite. After their disappointing loss to the Panthers, the number re-opened briefly at Buccaneers -2.5, with Ravens money pouring in early in the week, shifting the favourite to the Ravens. The Ravens got as high as -2, with the consensus number now sitting around Ravens -1.5. For what it’s worth, I have aggressively downgraded the Buccaneers the past two weeks, and I still have this as a pick em’.
The Ravens do not appear to be a team that can win with margin, and despite the Buccaneers being horrific the past two weeks, this must be close to the bottom of their market price. Just think, the Buccaneers closed 1.5-point favourites to the Chiefs at home less than a month ago, and whilst the downgrade to the Bucs by the market is no doubt called for, have they gone too far?
The injury report for both teams is brutal, and without the final report it is difficult to make a call, however given I make the game a pick em’, I’ll take the underdog on the moneyline.
NB: Since writing this preview, the favourite has flipped AGAIN, with the Bucs now 1.5-point favourites.
Ravens H2H
$2.10 (1 Unit)
