Ouch. We thought last Thursday Night Football was bad! We watched (begrudgingly) the Broncos and Colts fumble their way through 4 quarters, before killing us further with going to overtime, before the Colts got home 12-9 in a game that saw zero touchdowns. This week, we get two of the worst teams in the NFL, in a clash that isn’t even a Divisional matchup, in a scheduling screw up that Amazon will not be happy with. The Commanders appear to have hit rock bottom, and a loss here against what was projected to be a bottom 3 team in the league this season, could see Head Coach Ron Rivera on the hot seat.
Monday Night Football was a great handicap for us, going 2 for 2 with our best bets, with neither really looking in too much doubt. For the season in prime time, we now sit with a 7-1-4 (+5.57u) record, keeping our head nicely above water.
Ben Bridge brings you his analysis and best bets for Friday morning’s clash between the Commanders and the Bears.
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears Preview & Betting Tips
Soldier Field, Friday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Commanders had an horrific loss last week, in a game where they outgained the Titans 385-241, 6.6 yards per play to 3.9 yards per play, and 9 yards per pass to 5.4 yards per pass. The Titans did nothing all game, however, were 3/3 in redzone efficiency and won the turnover battle 1-0, which was enough to get an ugly 21-17 victory. Carson Wentz has been thrown under the bus by Head Coach Ron Rivera, and there seems to be an air of discontent in the Nation’s Capital. Heads could start rolling with another loss this week, with a 10-day break before their next game.
The Bears were competitive last week against NFC North rivals the Vikings, despite going down 21-3 early and making Kirk Cousins look like Tom Brady. The Vikings statistically on offense were as close to perfection as possible, and I believe the only reason this one ended up being close was the Vikings taking their foot off the gas. The Bears continue to refuse to pass the ball, and this will continue to haunt them in a passing heavy league.
Injury Report
Washington Commanders
Samuel Cosmi (OT) – OUT
William Jackson III (CB) – OUT
Percy Butler (SAF) – OUT
Jahan Dotson (WR) – OUT
Jonathan Williams (RB) – OUT
Logan Thomas (TE) – OUT
Dyami Brown (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Chase Young (DE) – OUT
Phidarian Mathis (DT) - OUT
Chicago Bears
Cody Whitehair / Dakota Dozier / Alex Leatherwood (OL) – OUT
Byron Pringle (WR) – OUT
Doug Cramer (C) - OUT
Tavon Young (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Ledarious Mack (DE) QUESTIONABLE
Andre Anthony / Matthew Adams (LB) - OUT
Match Preview
The early expectation for this match was for heavy wind around game time, and as such the total has plummeted to currently sit at 37.5, which if it were to close at this number would be the lowest total of the season. With the game now less than 24 hours away, the weather doesn’t look as bad, and painfully I’m looking at an overs play in this game.
Why is it painful? Well, these two offences have been terrible this season, with both sitting in the bottom four offensive teams according to DVOA. The good news is the fact both teams are also terrible of defence, and the overs play would be purely based on the fact the number is so low.
If we look at the side for this contest, the number on the look ahead was Commanders -1.5. The favourite changed at open, with the Bears 1-point favourites early, however the number now sits at a pick em’, and it makes sense. I rate both teams as basically the same, and the Bears home field advantage is negligible, and as such the line is about right. So, if that’s the case, we need to look more in depth at the matchups.
The Bears are a heavy run attack, and this plays nicely into the hands of the Commanders greatest strength. The Commanders currently have the 6th best rush defence in the league according to DVOA, despite coming up against some of the absolute best rushing attacks in the NFL. If they can continue to stop the run, this will mean the Bears at some point will have to try and throw the ball. This is not how they want to play, and Justin Fields appears to not want to push the ball down field or has been told not to. Whilst there could be some splash plays, I see the Commanders shutting the Bears down in this game. I also trust the redzone offense and defence of the Commanders will have some positive regression, as they have really struggled in these areas the last few weeks.
Not a huge play as I don’t trust either of these teams, but Commanders to win and a small amount on the overs are my plays here.
Alternate Bet: Over 37.5 - $1.94 (Betfair 1 Unit)
Washington Commanders H2H
$2 (1.5 Units)
