The NFL continues the suffering for primetime fans, with Monday Night Football this week featuring the streaking New England Patriots (3-3) hosting the listless Chicago Bears (2-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are coming off two blowout wins and look to make it 3 in a row against a team that is struggling to get anything going on offense. The AFC East is currently one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, with the Patriots currently sitting 4th and last in the division, despite sitting at 3-3. Now could be the time to buy in on the Patriots though, with a soft upcoming schedule they are sitting in a solid position to take a wild card spot. The Bears were always looking at a difficult season, but their offense has been below expectation, and at some point, they need to evaluate what they have in Justin Fields and let him throw. Probably won’t be this week though.
We had another winner on Thursday Night Football, with the total flying over with the Cardinals’ 42-34 victory. We now sit at 10-1-5 (+8.43u) for the season in primetime games. Let’s keep this up.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots Preview & Betting Tips
Gillette Stadium, Tuesday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Bears are coming off a home Thursday Night Football loss to the Washington Commanders, losing 12-7 in a horrible game. The positive is the Bears will have had the ‘mini bye’, getting 10 days between games for their battle with the Patriots. The Bears dominated statistically, but couldn’t get it done when it mattered, going 0 for 3 in redzone efficiency. It’s a game the Bears really should have won, and you’ve got to wonder what the mental state of Justin Fields is moving forward. They no doubt will run the ball a lot against this Patriots defence, and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare.
The Patriots continued their recent form, smashing the Browns 38-15 in a contest in which they were never tested. Rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe looked like a veteran, passing for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly perhaps for this week, the Patriots defence was able to shut down the Browns running game, which is one of the best in the league. I’ve no doubt Bill Belichick will have schemed up something to shut down the Bears run game this week.
Injury Report
Chicago Bears
Alex Leatherwood (OT) – OUT
Cody Whitehair / Dakota Dozier / Doug Kramer (IOL) – OUT
Byron Pringle (WR) – OUT
David Moore (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Ledarius Mack (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Tavon Young (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Matthew Adams (OLB) – OUT
Andre Anthony (LB) – OUT
New England Patriots
Mac Jones (QB) – QUESTIONABLE
Malcolm Butler / Jonathan Jones / Jalen Mills (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Christian Barmore (DT) – QUESTIONABLE
Kendrick Bourne / Nelson Agholor (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Joejuan Williams (CB) – OUT
Yodny Cajuste (OT) – OUT
Isaiah Wynn (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
Lawrence Guy (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
The lookahead for this one was Patriots -6, which looked wrong at the time and has been bet accordingly, all the way to -8.5. With Mac Jones looking likely to come back in, perhaps the lookahead reflected a Bailey Zappe start, however I’d still take the -6 with Bailey Zappe under center.
We’ve seen a comparable situation to this already this weekend, with a week 1 starting quarterback coming back into the fold for a team favoured by a touchdown or more. Dak Prescott returned against the Lions yesterday, and whilst it was a clunky performance from the Cowboys offense, they still managed to get the job done.
I’m going to lean into this for my best bet, which was originally going to be Patriots -6.5, however that number is long gone. I really like the under in this one, as I can see the Patriots offense being a little slow to get going with the change in quarterback, whilst their defensive scheme should be able to shut the Bears down effectively.
A couple of official plays here, with the under and Bears team total under both strong considerations that are strongly correlated. If you must be a side, I’d still lean Patriots -8 ($1.90 @ Betfair), however I prefer the total plays.
Alternate Bet: Bears (Team Total) under 16.5 - $1.80 @ TAB (1.5u)
Under 40.5
$1.99 (2 Units)
