The 2019-20 NFL season officially gets underway this Friday morning (AEST) with the Chicago Bears taking on the Green Bay Packers!
We will be providing you with weekly betting tips for the key games of the round throughout the NFL season and earlier this week we released our Season Preview & Betting Tips which focused on team futures. Today, however, we are taking a look the player props including awards, stats and more!
The most coveted individual award in the NFL is of course, the MVP trophy. Kansas City Chiefs QB won the award last season in just his second year in the league and will enter the new season as hot favourite to go back-to-back. Mahomes became just the third player in history to throw 50 TD passes in a single season, joining Tom Brady and Peyton Manning on the list. He also racked up over 5,000 passing yards, becoming just the seventh quarterback to accomplish that feat.
We think with so many fit and firing quarterbacks at the top of the market this season, it’s unlikely that a non QB will win the MVP award. Alongside Patrick Mahomes is the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, three of whom have MVP awards to their name.
We love the safety of Tom Brady here. The New England quarterback rarely gets injured and has an armchair ride to the No.1 seed in the AFC Conference this year, something that often goes hand in hand with the MVP award. The Patriots will play their inter-conference games against the NFC East, the weakest of the NFC divisions and they will also be at home for key clashes against Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Kansas City throughout the season. Brady threw for 4,355 yards last year and racked up 29 passing touchdowns. If not for the historic year from Mahomes, Brady likely would have won the award for a fourth time.
If you’re hunting value in the MVP award market, look no further than Matty ‘Ice’ Ryan. By his and the Atlanta Falcon’s standards, they had a pretty down season last year. Matt Ryan still finished third on the passing yards list with just under 5,000, behind only Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. He also fired 35 passing touchdowns, the third most of any quarterback in the league. Atlanta have the ability to be strong performers in the regular season this year as they play their inter-conference games against the AFC South. At $31, Ryan is good value for the MVP.
While we are on the subject of quarterbacks, let’s discuss the 2019-20 NFL passing markets. Patrick Mahomes naturally is a strong favourite in nearly every category. We are going to be targeting some more value apart from the passing TD’s market, where Mahomes looks to be the only candidate.
While many teams have gone away from throwing the ball in the red zone and opting to force it in there along the ground, Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid has full faith in Mahomes in the red zone to get the job done the way it was drawn up or to improvise with his brilliant footwork and creativity. He blitzed the competition last year, throwing 11 more TD’s than his nearest opponent and should top the charts again.
Todd Gurley ran in 17 TD’s last season to top the field and was closely followed by New Orleans star Alvin Kamara, who rushed for 14 and added another four through the air. We are steering clear of those two this season, however, and targeting Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants. Arguably the best player in the league, the Giants offence revolves around Barkley.
Barkley combined for 15 touchdowns last season and was second in total rushing yards behind on Ezekiel Elliot of the Dallas Cowboys. Barkley should get more carries than any other player in the league this year as the Giants look to use aging QB Eli Manning less and less.
No Antonio Brown in black and yellow this season means one thing; JuJu Smith-Schuster is set to explode. The Steelers wide-receiver has played second fiddle to Brown in his two seasons in the NFL so far but is certain to become Ben Roethlisberger’s first option this season. The sophomore had 1,426 yards last season, the fifth most in the league.
Smith-Schuster’s target percentage should increase this season making his price tag of $15 to top the list in receiving yards to good to refuse.
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