Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, November 22nd.
We kick off another big weekend of racing in Australia with eight races under lights at The Valley, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 5m.
Check out @Tim_Tips' race-by-race preview below.
Horse Racing Tips: Friday, November 22nd
Best Bet: Race 3 - (4) Sovereign Award
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (1) Appmat
Extremely keen to back (7) Kusari here and I think we're getting a terrific price with $2.90 available. This horse debuted at Seymour where he finished 4th behind Oasis Girl, which has turned out to be an extremely strong form line and a race that has produced four subsequent winners. Oasis Girl graduated from that race to then win her next start at Bendigo, before a 4th placing in the Listed Twilight Glow Stakes at Sandown last weekend - a great run given she was three-wide the trip. Kusari then went to Pakenham and was beaten a nose as the heavy odds on favourite, but he ran home very strongly on the heavy track and there was a 3L gap back to the 3rd horse. Up to the mile looks ideal, Mark Zahra takes over from Clayton Douglas and the only little negative is barrier 11, but I think she's good enough to overcome that.
Wide open race this, with six or seven winning chances. I'm going to be risking the current favourite (2) Covert Miss, despite having Craig Williams booked for the ride. She's had two starts back from a spell and she comes into this on the back of a 6L win at Warrnambool and Symon Wilde is flying, but his runners in town aren't doing much. He's only had one placing from 13 runners at Moonee Valley this season, so with the awkward draw I'll bet around her. (6) Heka Express raced alright at Flemington two starts back in a strong race, and then appreciated the sharp drop back in class when bolting in by 5L at Ballarat last start. I suspect we'll see her lead again after she was so dominant doing so at Ballarat, and if she gets it her own way up front she's clearly the one to beat. I think the each way odds about (4) Unicorny is worth taking. She's won two from two so far this prep, the latest of which was at this track and distance. Can'tforgetyou ran 3rd in that race and then came out and won last Friday night so the form out of the race is good. That was against her own sex and she takes on the boys here, so she might need to improve again, but I think she's capable of doing so and there's no reason she can't win again. (3) Beautiful Bee just continues to race well and she hasn't had much luck. She's raced 10 times this campaign and has two wins and five placings. She rarely runs a bad race. She was beaten 3L last start when 4th at this track and distance after enduring a wide trip throughout. One day soon she'll get a good run and win one of these. 5) All In Brawl not hopeless.
(4) Sovereign Award surely proves too strong for this lot. She ran 2nd first up and then finished midfield at Flemington during Cup week behind Nudge. Third up, drawn well in barrier 4, Craig Williams booked and it's Danny O'Brien's only runner of the night. (8) Shahzade worked home strongly first up at Cranbourne on a heavy deck. She'll take improvement and looks suited up to the mile second up. (3) Esposito Gold has struggled this prep but she's a track specialist.
(4) Sovereign Award
$1.95
Another wide open race. I'm with (3) Nicajon on top. He's been racing well all prep. He won second up at Warrnambool, then had no luck third up at Ballarat, when he was held up most of the straight. Two starts back he looked only fair but he actually ran home in the second fastest final 400m and 200m of the race, and last start he was beaten a nose at this track and distance by Vigere. Vigere then came out and won again midweek so that's a positive form reference. Barrier 8 is a little bit tricky but there does look good speed in the race which may allow him to just find his feet early. (2) Frankly Harvey ran well first up from an eight-week break and did win at Sandown three starts back over this distance. (5) Living The Dream gets blinkers on for the first time. Hopefully they improve him because I thought he was disappointing last start.
Competitive little 955m race. (5) Written Choice was awful last prep but he might be back, or at least I'm hoping he is. He comes into this first up and he's undefeated from two previous starts at the track and distance. He resumes tonight with the blinkers on again, which tells me they'll have him set to win this. Nash Rawiller is an eye-catching jockey booking, and I suspect this is the ride he's in Melbourne for. He'll go forward and either lead or sit outside the leader and I think at the price I have to take a punt that he'll return to form tonight. (1) Our Luca is also first up. He's another that went off the boil last prep but his two trials this time in have been quite encouraging. He's won two of his three starts at the track and distance, he's won three from five when first up and has five wins in total at the distance, so he's certainly in the right race. (6) Propelle is a talented mare and will probably start favourite. She's first up and draws barrier 1. I'm not sure if that's actually a positive. I doubt she'll push through to lead, so she's going to box seat and that's not always ideal here at the Valley. She's no doubt got the talent to win on her best form. Gordon Richards brings (4) Bold Star over from Adelaide. Whenever he brings runners across to Victoria you have to be very wary. He's had seven this season, for three winners and two 2nds. Craig Williams takes the ride which is another hint, but the horse has so far been useless first up from a spell, failing to place from four attempts. I will say that last prep he completely turned his form around, so there is the chance he could show something first up for the first time, but I'll be reluctantly risking him.
(5) Written Choice E/W
$6.00
Going to take a punt on the Lindsey Smith-trained (9) Rolls here. He was a last-start maiden winner at Hamilton and while that is relatively weak form, the stable is flying in Melbourne and the horse can probably improve again. It trotted in to win by 4L last start and the horse it beat then came out and won its next start by 3.5L. Soft draw, Linda Meech on, should roll forward and give them something to chase. (4) Grand Scholar was another impressive winner last start, where she was first up from a spell on heavy ground at Cranbourne. She led all the way on that occasion so there's a chance she'll kick up and try to lead as well. She ran 2nd to Missile Mantra second up last prep and that's obviously A-grade form, so I'm certainly not underestimating her. (1) Santorini Summer was a horse I backed first up at Fleimington. She was pretty poor but this is an easier race and Craig Williams sticks.
Great little race this, with seven last-start winners in the field of 10. There's two standouts that I'm keen to be with. (4) Somals is a filly I've been waiting for to return to the races. She was meant to run on November 1st and she was $10 into $4.40 as our best value bet of the night, but was scratched at the gates! She returns tonight so I'm expecting a big run fresh so long as she took no ill-effect from that incident a few weeks ago. She led all the way on debut and her jumpouts have been very good so from the good draw, she looks a winning chance. (7) Dane Clipper raced here last Friday night. She was heavily backed into $2.50 at the jump and it was the horror show of the night. Luke Nolen took a sit on her from barrier 1, she then got held up the entire straight. Jockey change tonight and barrier 5 should allow her clear running. If you backed her last week you probably have to back her again given there's $6.50 on offer for her tonight.
Also backing: (7) Dane Clipper $6.50
(3) Jaguary is racing in good form and his run here two starts back behind Double You Tee was good enough to see him be competitive again tonight. He's had eight starts this preparation and has run 1st or 2nd in seven of those. Drawn wide tonight but he might be able to find a back from about the 800m and come over the top of them. The absolute blowout in the race could be (1) Appmat. The horse may well be completely cooked but he always needs his first two runs back from a spell and then comes good third up. He's never finished out of the top two from three starts when second up, so I'll have something on at $101.
