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2024 AFL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Sunday 1:00pm AEST, June 2nd, TIO Traeger Park
Melbourne got back to winning ways with a convincing 38 point victory over St Kilda last week. The Saints kicked the last three goals of the game which meant the scoreboard flattered them, with the Dees leading by as much as 55 points in the fourth quarter.
Max Gawn produced a captain’s game to lead Melbourne to victory, recording 27 disposals, 10 clearances, 7 marks and 1 goal. Gawn’s dominance in the centre saw Melbourne have a +26 advantage for inside 50’s and +6 at centre clearances which allowed the Dees to play the game in their front half.
Melbourne have made one change at selection Daniel Turner replacing Jacob van Rooyen who is out with a groin injury. Fremantle have made two changes as Michael Frederick and Sam Sturt come into the side for Matthew Johnson (managed) and Tom Emmett (omitted).
Fremantle produced a late flurry against Collingwood last week, kicking the final four goals of the game in a thrilling draw. The Dockers trailed by 25 points with seven minutes remaining, and Jeremy Sharp had a golden opportunity to steal a win in the final minute, but couldn’t convert.
The fightback was brave, however it was a missed opportunity for the Dockers against an undermanned Collingwood outfit, especially given the control they had of the contest at half time. The result leaves Fremantle in ninth place coming into this weekend, making this a must win clash for Justin Longmuir’s side.
These sides have a similar build and system, with strong midfields and backlines, but scoring is often the issue. Melbourne and Fremantle rank 12th and 13th in points for this season, with the Dockers only scoring 100 points once since Round 3. Both times Fremantle have scored over 100 points this season, were against the bottom two teams in Richmond and North Melbourne.
Fremantle and Melbourne are the second and third ranked defensive sides in the competition this season, so will likely be a low scoring slog in the Alice.
Match Prediction: This game will come down to the ability to convert opportunities given the strength of both backlines, and Melbourne just have more quality finishes that you can have confidence in. Fremantle have kicked 11.9, 9.18 and 4.15 over the last three weeks, and you can’t afford to miss opportunities given the limited amount of looks they’ll get against Melbourne.
The battle of Gawn and Jackson will be one to watch, but the experience of Ganw, Petracca, Oliver and Viney will win out over Freo’s young midfield. This won’t be a pretty game, but the Demons will grind out a win.
Melbourne 1-39
$2.05 (1.5 Units)
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Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals: After a lean patch between Round 4-7 when he was dealing with a finger injury, Clayton Oliver is starting to get back to his best. The star midfielder has averaged 26 disposals per game over his last four games, reaching the 25+ disposal mark in three of those four games.
Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals: Caleb Serong has established himself as one of the best midfielders in the game this season, averaging 32 disposals per game. Serong has recorded at least 25 disposals in all eleven games he’s played this season, and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in his last two games against Melbourne.
Luke Ryan 25+ Disposals: Luke Ryan is putting together arguably the most underrated season in the AFL this year, averaging 26 disposals per game. Ryan has recorded 39, 26, 27 and 31 disposals across his last four games.
