A massive NFC North clash greets us to kick off week 4, as the Lions head to the Frozen Tundra to take on the Green Bay Packers. With both teams sporting 2-1 records, and the other NFC North teams both 0-3, this matchup could have massive playoff implications, even this early in the season.
We had a decent Week 3 as we hit two of our three Best Bets, but unfortunately we lost our 3 unit bet on the Rams, as Joe Burrow managed to play. Our season is still getting up and running, as we sit at a 5-4 (-0.5u) record.
NFL Week 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Friday 29th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
The Packers managed a remarkable comeback last week, winning their first home game of the season over the Saints, 18-17. The Packers were unable to get anything going on offense through three quarters, trailing the Saints 17-0. The Packers managed a field goal on their first drive in the fourth quarter, before a Jordan Love rushing touchdown made the score 17-9. In a masterstroke of coaching, Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur decided to go for 2, before converting and turning the game on its head. Another touchdown with just under 3 minutes remaining was enough to get the Packers home.
The Lions got back on track with a 20-6 home victory over the Falcons. The Lions’ offense was solid, gaining 362 yards at 5.6 yards per play, however their 3rd down percentage (28.6%) and red zone efficiency (20%) left a lot to be desired. They would be happy with their defence, after conceding 37 points in week 2 to the Seahawks. The Lions were led by 2nd year defensive end Aidan Hutchonson, who had 4 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 passes deflected and a forced fumble. The Lions will be hoping for more of the same from their stud edge rusher in week 4.
Injury Report
Green Bay Packers
Eric Stokes (CB) - OUT
Elgton Jenkins (OG) - OUT
David Bakhtiari (OT) - OUT
Zach Tom (OT) - Questionable
Christian Watson (WR) - Questionable
Rashan Gary (OLB) - Questionable
De’Vondre Campbell (LB) - OUT
Jaire Alexander (CB) - Questionable
Aaron Jones (RB) - Questionable
Detroit Lions
Nate Sudfield / Hendon Hooker (QB) - OUT
Julian Okwara (OLB) - OUT
James Houston / Josh Paschal (Edge) - OUT
Chuancey Gardner-Johnson / Khalil Dorsey (DB) - OUT
Matt Nelson / Taylor Decker (OT) - Questionable
Jonah Jackson / Halapoulivaati Vaitai (OG) - Questionable
Kerby Joseph / Emmanuel Mosley (DB) - Questionable
David Montgomery (RB) - Questionable
Match Preview
The Lions managed to win both matchups with the Packers last season, winning 15-9 at home in week 9, and it was on the back of a tremendous defensive performance, with the defence getting 3 interceptions from former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Then, in the final week of the season, in a must-win game for the Packers, the Lions managed to go to Lambeau Field and get the win, battling past the Packers 20-16. That marked the 3rd straight win for the Lions over the Packers, in a series they are starting to get the better of.
As for this game, the Packers opened 1.5-point favorites on the look ahead prior to week 3, with the market losing faith in the Lions after their home loss to the Seahawks. After both teams won in week 3, the number re-opened Lions -2, with the Packers dealing with key injuries on their offensive line and to some big-time skill position players. With the majority of these players still on the injury report and listed as questionable, it’s easy to see why the Lions took money early in the week. The Lions aren’t without injury concerns, with most of their offensive line currently listed as questionable for week 4.
My number for the game is a pick 'em, however this is based on my fully fit numbers. Given the magnitude of the game, I’d be surprised if both teams didn’t get most of the talent back, however if you can leave this bet up until kick off then I’d advise doing it. With the Packers missing two offensive lineman, if two of Watson, Jones, and Alexander miss, they will struggle big time here. The Lions have been far more efficient at moving the ball, and their defence has shown improvement to start the season.
The total was 46.5 on the look ahead, before reopening at 44.5. Punters have come in and bet it back up to 46. The Packers have gone 2-1 in overs, whilst the Lions are 1-2 to the over. Given the results from last season, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a grinding matchup on
Thursday Night Football, and with my fair total at 45 I’d have a slight lean to the under. However, with the short week for both teams, I’ll steer clear with the uncertainty surrounding both teams’, particularly up front.
Lions -1.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
