The NFL is back baby! And what better way to kick things off on Thursday Night Football, than with the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs will take on a team with plenty of hype around them this season, the Detroit Lions, and we will get an early indication of where the NFC North favorites are sitting.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our best bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated NFL match previews for all prime-time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 1 Prediction & Tips
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Friday 8th September, 10:20am (AEST)
Last Season
The Chiefs famously won Super Bowl LVII, beating the Eagles 38-35 in an electrifying battle between the two best teams in the 2022/23 season. The Chiefs finished atop the AFC going 14-3, whilst scoring 29.1 points per game, good for the most in the league. In the playoffs, they battled past the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, before burying the Bengals in the AFC Championship game. Ultimately, superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes was able to lead the Chiefs to his 2nd Super Bowl victory. The question is, can they do it again?
As for the Lions, there was plenty of hype surrounding the Lions heading into the 2022/23 season. Despite this, the Lions struggled out of the gate, sitting at 1-6 through 8 weeks, before winning 6 of their next 7. A tough loss to the struggling Panthers in week 16 almost destroyed their chances of making the playoffs, however after winning the following week they had a chance. Unfortunately, results didn’t go their way in week 18, and despite beating the Packers 20-16, they fell short of making the playoffs, despite going 9-8. Big things are expected this season, can the Lions make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016?
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Cam Jones / Leo Chenal (LB) – Questionable
Nic Jones / L’Jarius Sneed (CB) – Questionable
Jody Fortson (TE) – OUT
Kadarius Toney (WR) – Questionable
Nazeeh Johnson (SAF) – OUT
Detroit Lions
Julian Okwara (OLB) – OUT
Hendon Hooker / Nate Sudfield (QB) – OUT
Emmanuel Mosely (DB) – Questionable
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) - Questionable
Match Preview
The Chiefs and Lions will clash for the first time since 2019, where the Chiefs snuck by the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field in Detroit. And with two of the most exciting offenses about to go head-to-head, a similar score line could well be on the cards.
The line opened Chiefs -6.5, and over the course of the past 4 months since the schedule dropped, the number has gone back and forth between Chiefs -7, and Chiefs -6.5. The number seems to have settled on 6.5 for now, with the news that stud Defensive Tackle Chris Jones is unlikely to suit up for week 1. Jones is currently holding out, with the Chiefs unable to reach an agreement with the 1st Team All-Pro defensive lineman. My number sits at Chiefs -7.5, and even with the loss of Jones, I still see value in the Chiefs to cover at home in round 1.
Moving onto the total, it currently sits at a mammoth 54.5, a full 3.5-points higher than the next highest total for week 1. It’s hard to argue, with two of the best offenses in the game last season going at it. Despite this, let’s look at some reasons to consider the over.
The Patrick Mahomes / Andy Reid week 1 combination is a sight to behold. The Chiefs have averaged 37.8 points per game in week 1 over the past 5 seasons (since Mahomes took over as starting QB). Their opponents have averaged 24.8 points per game, nothing to sneeze at, whilst the average total points in each game sits at 62.6 points per game.
Another reason that I like the total to go over here, is that both these teams, as outlined above, are offensive juggernauts. The Chiefs (29.2) and Lions (26.6) were the 1st and 5th ranked offenses last season. With both teams running similar offenses this season, they should both be up there for points scored per game once again this season.
Finally, Lions’ offensive co-ordinator Ben Johnson is widely considered as one of, if not the best OC in the NFL, and could easily have landed a Head Coaching gig this season. With Chris Jones out, I expect Johnson to have a great game plan for the Lions to get to at least 24 points in this one, which should see this total fly over.
Small staking to kick things off here in week 1, but let’s start off on the right foot with a couple of winners here.
EDIT: News has broken that Chiefs’ Superstar tight-end Travis Kelce is in extreme doubt, hyper-extending his knee at practice. Money has, as expected, poured in on the Lions and the under. I still like the over, and now get a better number, however the spread isn’t quite where I’d like it. IF the Chiefs get down to -4, this will be a full unit. If it doesn’t get that low, the spread bet will not be an official play.
Other Bet
Chiefs (-4) - $1.91 at Betfair (1u) *If the spread gets to -4*
Total points over 52.5
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
