After suffering a rare loss against Carlton last weekend, Collingwood will be looking to bounce back against the rebuilding Hawks in their Round 21 matchup. Expert, Ace, has you covered with a full match preview and betting tips below!
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AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Collingwood
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, August 5th, MCG
Was last week just a blip on the radar, or is there starting to be a pattern forming with teams starting to figure out the best way to play Collingwood? We might know a little more at the end of this clash against Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
The match-up is set up a little better for the Pies this week compared to last week, where the Blues got the better of them in Friday night football at the ‘G. The Pies were coming off a 6 day break after what was arguably the game of the year against the Power. Not only that, the game went down to the wire, with rain impacting the match at times as well. To back up 6 days later, 2 games and percentage on top of the ladder, and lose a match where they had more scoring chances than the opposition, isn’t enough to warrant wholesale changes to a plan that has worked for most of the year. There is certainly the opportunity for tweaking though, as Craig McRae discussed that win or loss, the Pies are in the process of simply trying to get better every day. They’ve made two changes to their starting 22, and both should improve the overall structure of the team. Coming into the starting 22 are Bobby Hill and Ash Johnson, with Hill adding more defensive pressure to the forward half and Johnson adding another goal kicking threat up forward. As a back-up option, it will be interesting to see if Jeremy Howe makes another appearance forward late in the game, after his three goal final quarter last week. Johnson’s position looks to the be most vulnerable in the starting 22, with Collingwood capable of bringing Mason Cox back into the team, or using Billy Frampton either forward or in defence to free up Darcy Moore and send Howe forward, so the newly-signed Johnson will need to be engaged both as a forward and sharing back-up ruck duties with Dan McStay.
It was a very Hawthorn-like performance last week against the Saints. There were two very strong quarters in the middle, however they were sandwiched by two incredibly disappointing quarters where the Saints were able to get off the chain and score heavily, something that is uncommon when it comes to Ross Lyon led teams. You can see the long-term benefits of the Hawks offloading the likes of Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell in last years’ trade period, and that decision has been strengthened by the return to form of James Worpel this year. Worpel, alongside the likes of Jai Newcombe, Will Day, Connor Nash and Josh Ward, are all taking steps forward in their game. The consistency will come, and be supported by the experience of players such as James Sicily, Luke Breust, Jarman Impey and Karl Amon, however it is still going to take a little while to develop for the Hawks.
Sam Mitchell locked in Finn Maginness to tag Nick Daicos, although he did say he would be wary of what that means for the rest of the Collingwood midfield. The Pies are fielding arguably their best team of the year, with Oleg Markov the perfect option to play as the sub, and coming off a loss and an 8 day break, look primed to put in one of their more solid showings of the year. If the Pies can put clamps on Mitch Lewis and Breust, this one has the potential to become quite one-sided. I am comfortable backing the Pies at the line in this one.
Collingwood -31.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals – With Nick Daicos to receive the hard tag, I am looking for De Goey to get off the leash here. Put in a strong showing last week after being hit with a virus in the lead-up to the Port game, and should be strong again here.
Jack Crisp 20+ disposals – Had 4 disposals to half time last week, yet still found a way to hit 20. Consistency appeals here in this selection.
Ash Johnson 2+ goals – Anticipating a strong showing from Johnson after a dominant performance in the VFL last week. Position in the team is up for grabs, and should be able to capitalize on taking the third defender in the forward line. Could also recommend Dan McStay here at slightly longer odds, or both!
SGM Odds: $5 at BoomBet ($5.50 replacing Johnson with McStay, or $9 with both!)
