Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, October 16th.
We're on the C course tonight, which the the widest rail, so typically it helps to be up on speed and runners will fan wide in the straight.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 16th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (1) Best Smile
Next Best Bet: Race 8 - (7) High Rev
Best Value Bet: Race 3 - (3) Kiram
The favourite (2) Sky Gem should be hard to beat but he's short enough at $6.50. He draws softly in barrier 2 and has put the writing on the wall with two placings leading into this. His run for 3rd last start was good and that was his first start at Happy Valley, so he will probably be better with that experience under the belt. I think the $6.50 for (3) Golden Kid is a reasonable price. He dropped back into Class 5 two starts back, which was at the end of last season. He ran well on that occasion and his first run of the new season was also encouraging. He was taken back to last from the wide gate but produced a decent final 400m to be beaten 1.6L. The step up to 1800m suits, he's placed in all three starts over this track and distance. Draws better in gate 4 here and can sit closer hopefully. His trial was ordinary at best but I won't read too much into that. (8) Money Marshall has had five starts at Happy Valley and has never placed, but he ran well at Sha Tin last start and his trainer Paul O'Sullivan is flying.
(1) Best Smile is the best bet of the night here. Anything over even money is good. He's had two starts and has run 2nd on both occasions. He had his chance first up but he was beaten by a pretty handy horse in Hardly Swears, who has since come out and won impressively again. So there might be a bit of depth to that form. I think the draw in barrier 6 probably works better for him than barrier 1. If he can slot in midfield and get going around the corner, he should be running home over the top of them. (2) Look Eras is always an each way hope (more a place chance) over this track and distance. (4) Sam's Love produced a very good final 400m in defeat behind Best Smile last start.
I might be making the complete wrong decision here but (3) Kiram appeals as an each way bet at $9.50. Trainer David Ferraris hasn't had a single winner yet this season but I have a feeling this horse will at least run well. He hasn't won for 14 months but his last two victories have both been at Happy Valley and overall he races fairly well here. He's placed in eight of his 12 starts at the track and distance, he's won first up over this track and distance in the past, and he's drawn a plum barrier tonight. Barrier 2 is clearly the most successful barrier for the 1650m on the C course at Happy Valley. If he's ever going to go close to winning one again, it could be tonight. (6) Royal Racer gets Purton on again for Casper Fownes. He's found a suitable race tonight. The barrier draw doesn't help but this is definitely a race he should be competitive in. (12) Bundle Of Energy ran well first up but he's short enough at $2.80 for a horse with no wins from 17 starts.
I'm going to take on the two favourites here. (1) Dream Warriors had the run of the race last start and proved too strong but he goes up 3.5kg in the weights tonight and it's generally tough to win again once you go up in the ratings. (4) Sangria is a horse that needs absolutely everything to go his way. He ran really well first up when he drew wide, went back, made a mid-race move and was just a sitting duck for Dream Warriors to run over the top. He ran a 23.02sec sectional between the 800m and the 400m on that occasion. For the first time in a while he actually draws a barrier, but he just needs all the breaks to go his way. (3) Family Leader gets the jockey change with Purton replacing Vincent Ho. Ho is no hack but Purton is the best in the land. Expect him to roll forward from barrier 10 to sit up on speed. He's a bit the same in that he needs everything to go his way, but I think he's a strong place chance at the very least. (5) King's Man is an each way bet at $7.00. Moreira replaces Van Niekerk and the wide barrier might be a little blessing. He ran home in better sectionals than Dream Warriors last start and gets a nice weight swing in his favour tonight. (10) Mister Monte looks the leader with the featherweight from the inside gate. He's up in class but can go well again.
Value: (5) King's Man $7.00
Looks a race between the two favourites and they're hard to split. I'll side with (2) Tashidelek for Purton and Moore. He went around over 1400m at Sha Tin first up to blow out the cobwebs. He started from gate 14 that day so just went to the back and worked home. Steps up to 1800m now which is a distance he can win at and they waste no time booking Zac, who jumps off another horse in this race which has won its past two, so that's a good sign. Drawn ideally and should be hard to beat. The query is the fact the horse has proved to be a bit of a cat in the past. (4) Xiang Bai Qi has only had one start at the track and distance and that was a narrow 2nd placing, where he finished basically alongside Tashidelek. He was good first up over 1650m here and he gets Moreira replacing Neil Callan tonight, as well as the plum draw in barrier 1.
(9) Holee Money goes on top here. He's only had the five career starts and he hasn't had much luck throughout. I thought his trial leading into this was very good and he should get the run of the race from barrier 4, with the other two favourites drawing awkwardly. Pretty keen on him here and think he goes very close to winning. (1) Lady First is a bit of a non-winner, with just one win from 24 starts. Didn't get much luck from the widest draw last start but did go very close from the same gate he starts from tonight two starts back. Purton retains the ride and he should go well. (2) Confuscious Day has claims but barrier 12 hurts.
Good little race this. The thing that really stands out to me in this race is the booking of Purton on (2) My Ally for John Moore. Purton has ridden two recent trials and all the gallops on (8) Bouyant Boy and also rode (1) Dancing Fighter in all three starts to date, but chooses to ride My Ally tonight, albeit the 117lbs for Dancing Fighter is outside his weight range. My Ally was beaten a head first up over this track and distance when starting from barrier 12. Draws softed in barrier 7 tonight and should be very hard to beat. Dancing Fighter steps up to 1200m for the first time in his career and Moreira picks up the ride with Purton unavailable. Drawn a touch awkwardly but he's shown plenty of ability so expect him to run well with the light weight. Bouyant Boy's trials have been excellent but as mentioned, Purton goes the other way with My Ally. Still, from the good draw Bouyant Boy can be competitive. He's had one win and four 2nds over this track and distance in this class. (12) Shining Ace draws the plum rails gate, but you'd think Moreira would ride it for Size if it was a legitimate chance. (3) Simply Big and (4) Young Legend both have claims.
(7) High Rev profiles really well for this race and is clearly the one to beat. He'd be my next best bet behind Best Smile tonight. I have absolutely no idea how he started favourite first up over 1200m, he was the lay of the night on that occasion and could only manage 6th. That race was just way too short for him and Purton had jumped off, but he gets back on tonight and the horse steps up to 1650m which is his best distance. Last time Zac rode him here, he made a mid-race move and won the race by about a furlong. He's drawn well in barrier 5 and will take all the beating. (10) Acclaimed Light gets his chance from barrier 2, which is the best barrier over the 1650m distance on the C course at Happy Valley. He's trialled well and can measure up. (6) Looking Good has place claims, while (9) Uuniversal Go Go has a great record at the track and distance.
