Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing on the Gold Coast for Magic Millions Day, Saturday 12 January.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 1.5m.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
GOLD COAST RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Manicure
Next Best Bet: Race 4 Tumultuous
Best Value: Race 1 Dunbrody Power
RACE 1
A race with 16 maidens fighting it out for 242k is never easy, especially when there are so many different form lines. Terminology comes up the short-priced favourite at $2.30 after running 2nd in the Listed Gosford Guineas last time out. It’s hard to know how deep that form is but the form behind the likes of Bel Sonic, Platinum Angel and Usain Bowler the start prior makes for good reading. Tim Clark is a positive jockey change today and she’ll be hard to run down. Dunbrody Power is one at longer odds that looks as if she could go well. She’s currently an $11 chance and that appeals as an each way bet for mine. She was only very narrowly defeated first up at Kensington and John Thompson runners typically improve second up. James McDonald keeps the ride and that’s an eye-catching jockey booking so she goes on top for me. Altair returns as a gelding for the Waller yard. Drawn quite well in barrier 9 with Bowman aboard. Has had the typical lead up of two trials and $7.50 is also a price that appeals. Rock is drawn terribly but is still very unexposed.
RACE 2
Another competitive race. Trust Me comes into this third up and gets the big jockey change of Mikayla Weir off and Hugh Bowman on. His first and second up records are poor but his third up record is a win and a placing from three starts so expect sharp improvement. He looks to have been set for this. Cymbalism is currently first emergency but if she gains a run I’m expecting her to runa bold race a $26. She bolted in first up before a disappointing run as favourite last start, but she has the tendency to do that second up. Her third up record stands at two wins from three starts and last prep she bolted in at Geelong at this stage of her prep. Jeff Lloyd goes on and she’s a long-priced chance. Tim Clark is booked for Reckless Choice who tackles this race first up and has had good market support. He’s yet to win first up and his best form is over longer distances than this so I’m prepared to take him on. Miss Toorak Flyer is the favourite after a good run for 2nd at Randwick last start, which followed a first up win at Cranbourne. The stable is in form and the mare looks to have returned in good form. Sticky barrier draw all the way out in the carpark but she’ll go close. Stanley Park is yet to finish out of the top two in five starts this prep and draws ideally in barrier 6. He’ll get his chance today, while Beraht looks a small chance at huge odds.
Value: Cymbalism $26 (if she runs)
RACE 3
Hugely competitive race. Divine Dice comes into this second up after a fair first up run. He’s won three of his four starts on the Gold Coast and draws well for this. I’d probably prefer if he was third up but I’m expecting a good run at each way odds. Tokoriki Lad also has a great record at the track with two wins from two starts. He comes off a win here last start and he won well here over the 1400m as a three-year-old, so with Jeff Lloyd on from the good gate, he should go well at $10. Skate To Paris has returned well, with a good first up run followed by a win last time out. She’s never finished out of the top two from three runs at the track. Should go well again. Chapter And Verse draws poorly and will be hitting the line hard from the back of the field. It’d be no surprise to see him round them all up out wide. The chances don’t end there.
Value: Tokoriki Lad $9.50
RACE 4
Pretty keen on Tumultuous here who should have won last start when beaten half-a-length by Tally. Gets a small swing in the weights and draws barrier 1 for a soft run. Bowman would be on but probably can’t make the weight so Fradd keeps the ride. Looks the one to beat. Goodfella was unlucky last start when held up most of the straight at Randwick. He’s somewhat of an unknown at the distance but he gets a positive jockey change today with McEvoy taking over from Jean Van Overmeire.
RACE 5
Houtzen should be too classy for this lot. She resumed from a short let-up to break the track record over 1050m at Doomben. She’s won three of her four starts when second up so if she brings her best form to the table then she’ll win. Kaepernick looks the value at $13 with James McDonald booked to ride. He ran 2nd to Redzel two starts ago and was only run down in the final stride at Flemington last time out. He comes into this fresh with a good trial under his belt. Usain Bowler flew at Flemington last start and belted subsequent winner Mastering. Dothraki has a terrific second up record and looms as a solid place chance.
RACE 6
Pretty keen on Manicure here for the Godolphin stable with James McDonald booked to ride. She won easily first up and her form last prep behind the likes of Houtzen looks good for this. She’s finished top two in both her second up starts prior to today so from the good draw, she looks the one they clearly need to beat. Invincibella may have needed the run first up from an eight-week spell at Flemington. Expect her to be primed for this. She won her only start at this track and distance, which was this exact race last year.
RACE 7
Tricky race to assess because while Outback Barbie might look the one to beat, favourites have a poor record in this race and so do the Queenslanders. She’s returned in good form this prep with a first up win followed by a 2nd placing behind Zoustyle, where she was beaten 0.75L. Three-year-old form in Queensland doesn’t get much better than Zoustyle at the moment. Last start was a complete forgive run – she was hampered by a fallen rider and only got clear running late in the piece. James McDonald is a huge jockey change today and from the good draw she looks a fairly obvious chance. With that said, I’m going with another Queenslander in Boomsara. He’s drawn poorly in barrier 18, but he should roll forward and find a spot on speed. He also has form behind Zoustyle; he was beaten a length two starts ago and followed that up with a 4.75L romp at Doomben last start. Tim Clark picks up the ride and if he can get across without doing too much work, he should be there for a long way. Of the raiders, Bondi will be primed for this third up by Team Snowden, who are renowned for being grand final trainers. Zizzis comes from a very astute stable who I rate highly. She draws well and could be a chance at longer odds. Barefoot is building a nice record and comes off a dominant win at this track last start. That was over 1800m so the drop back to 1400m is some query but she’s worth including. Persuader was a complete forgive run last start and prior to that was going well. Over the odds at $26.
RACE 8
Pretty keen on the Waterhouse pair here. Unite And Conquer bolted in at Flemington on debut, beating Sun City who would have started hard in the market had he taken his spot in this race. He then went to Gosford where he beat subsequent winner Exhilarates, who is likely to start favourite in this race. Czarson has also won both career starts and also beat Exhilarates on debut before winning by 2L last start at Rosehill. I think both of them bring the right sort of form to the race and can’t have done much more leading into this. They both trialled since their last runs and they went to the line together, 8L ahead of the third horse. Their problem is the fact they’ve drawn barriers 18 and 15 respectively. But at $6.00 and $6.50, I think we can still back them both. I was impressed with the last win of Dubious, who was asked to do plenty by Michael Walker, sitting three-wide without cover the trip. Drawn well and can win. Exhilarates continues to keep improving with each run and comes off a stylish win. The stable is flying and will have her ready to peak here. Champagne Boom and Better Reflection are the two at value. Backing both Waterhouse/Bott runners.
Also backing: Unite And Conquer $6.00
RACE 9
A few I’m pretty keen on here. On top goes Husson Eagle who looks to have returned in super form this prep. First up he was beaten less than half-a-length by Whispering Brook, who then came out and won again. He then ran 2nd to Alizee, who is a multiple Group 1 winner that resumed with a blistering win. I think all of that form is great for this and this horse has a very good third up record with three wins and two placings from seven starts. Drawn well and has won at this track previously. We’re getting $9.00 which looks a good each way price to me. Another at each way odds that appeals is Bel Sonic who also has run very well in two starts back from a spell. Beat subsequent winner Usain Bowler first up and should have won last start when running 2nd at Warwick Farm. Redouble came out of that same race and won his next start so the form is holding up. Bel Sonic will be charging home late at $9.00. Smartedge will be peaking for this third up for the Snowden stable. He showed last start he’s getting close to a win and no doubt he’s been aimed at this all along. At $18 I’d be having something on. Arbeitsam will be ready to go first up.
Value: Bel Sonic $9.00 / Smartedge $18
