Racing in Melbourne returns to headquarters this weekend with a 9 race program at Flemington.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a good chance of rain so that could be downgraded to Soft at some stage.
We have racing betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
Pretty keen on SADAQA here after two good wins in this company at his past two starts, the latest of which was over course and distance on a Soft track. Therefore if the rain comes it won't be a problem for him, and with the claim he carries just 52.5kg after carrying 51kg in his past two wins. Very much a winning hope again. The value in the race could be HARADAFULL who buck jumped first up before running 2nd last start at Cranbourne. This is harder but his third up record is good, he's adept in all conditions and he too carries 52.5kg after the claim. WAR LEGEND next best.
Tip: Sadaqa / Haradafull EW
This must be DE LITTLE ENGINE's last ever chance and if he can't win this then I'm not sure he'll ever win again! His run last start was the best he's produced for a while and he's got a good record at this track and distance. With the claim he is weighted to win and he has no excuses here. My concern is I wouldn't want to be jumping in at $2.70 when the horse hasn't won for an eternity, and to be honest, hasn't even looked like it. The value, and possibly a better bet in the race, is MUJADALE who comes off a dominant Stawell Cup victory. He's won two from three over the distance and will handle surface. The horse he beat in the Stawell Cup won over 2000m at Flemington leading into the race, so it wasn't a bunch of donkeys he beat. At $7 I'd much rather back him than De Little Engine.
Tip: Mujadale EW
If FREEZE OVER puts her last start failure behind her and returns to the form that saw her win impressively on debut then she'll be hard to run down here. She went around odds on favourite in Listed company in Adelaide last start but the jockey believed her action felt wrong. A couple at value that could run a big race are AMASTRYKER and TUSKAR BROOK. Amastryker should have won on debut at Mornington but was badly held up, and Tuskar Brook was badly held up the entire straight at Sandown last start. Happy to back Freeze Over at $3.80 with a small bet on both Amastryker and Tuskar Brook, both at $26.
Tip: Freeze Over / Amastryker EW / Tuskar Brook EW
PURE PRIDE looks one of the best bets of the day here. Her first up run with 60kg was very good despite having no luck, and she carried that into Group 3 company two starts ago when finishing 4th over 1600m here, beaten by a length. Forget her last start run when she got a mile back on the wet track - if the track stays around the Good 4 mark she should get back to her best form which, if a field like this, should see her winning comfortably. Happy to take the $2.90 on offer. Biggest dangers could be ROCK FOR THE LADIES and HERE TO THERE.
Tip: Pure Pride
Another one I'm pretty keen on here with DIVINE QUALITY who won for us on debut at Bendigo, and won with authority. She won by 3 lengths on that occasion and although it is difficult to step up from a maiden to BM78 grade, I think she's got the ability to do so. First time down the straight is a slight query, but with the draw will help her and with just 54.5kg on her back after the claim, she looks hard to beat. OVERSTEP looks the biggest danger, while FONT MAGICA could measure up.
Tip: Divine Quality
This is a huge step back in grade for ZASORCERESS who just has to turn up and perform near her best to win this in a canter. Put a line through her past couple where she clearly hasn't been as effective on wet ground, and look back to her performance three starts ago in Group 3 company over the mile here. The claim relieves her of a bit of the weight, and provided the track isn't too wet she should be winning this. I think we could see her stablemate POWDERWORKS produce her best form now at her fifth run back from a spell. She showed nothing at her first three runs this prep but showed promise last start when 3rd at Sandown. Now that she's fit and stepping up to 2000m, I expect a pretty sharp improvement from her at $15. The same can be said for YULONG BABY who is set to improve sharply second up from a spell here. She's never finished outside the top two form four runs when second up and has won her only start over track and distance. Goes well on Good or Soft tracks and the claim is a big help. Over the odds at $21.
Tip: Zasorceress (Best Bet)
WIDGEE TURF was good last week without much luck after missing the start and from barrier 6 today he should get every chance provided he jumps cleanly. He's definitely a horse to keep an eye on going forward and while part of me really wants to back him today, part of me wants to wait one more race. JUST HIFALUTIN was wide without cover last start and still finished off reasonably well to run 5th. He draws wide again today but if he can find cover he can win this with just 53kg on his back. GREVISTE comes out of a strong race behind Think Babe and Sword Of Light last start. From the good draw he might be able to settle a touch closer and I think he's definitely got claims at $10. So too does SOHO RUBY who ran 2nd to a very smart horse in Petition last start. She's got a tricky draw but if the track is Soft she is one at decent odds that can measure up. HAKERAK only ran 2nd in a maiden last start but I think he'll run better than his $35 odds suggest.
Tip: Just Hifalutin / Greviste EW (Best Value)
Pretty keen on MALIBU STYLE to get the job done again here after saluting at $21 for us last start. His form this prep since racing in Melbourne has been outstanding and his third up record suggests he certainly won't go backwards from last start. He sat three wide the trip and won in a canter last start, so despite a 2.5kg swing in the weights against Crystal Dreamer, he should be good enough to overcome it. Barrier 17 is offset by the fact the race is down the straight track and typically it is good to be drawn wide. Won third up last prep and trainer Neville Parnham was very bullish. Very happy to take the $5.50 on offer. O'MALLEY finished off his race nicely behind Malibu Style first up. If the track is in the SOft range it will suit him down to the ground. Has a good record at the distance and has won his only start at the track and distance. CRYSTAL DREAMER will be thereabouts.
Tip: Malibu Style
Had this pretty clearly between STEGGLER and STORMSABREWING. STEGGLER hit the line really well first up after taking a while to wind up. He'll be fitter and much better suited here second up from a spell and he'll go well on whatever surface it will be. STORMSABREWING flashed home last start in weaker grade but I think he's definitely got the talent to win this kind of race. He was held up in the straight but really savaged the line when he got clear, and he just needs a good ride from the tricky gate. IRISH OPTIMISM is one to keep an eye on at his second Australian start.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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