Super Saturday in Round 9 of the AFL continues with a twilight fixture between Essendon and Sydney at Marvel Stadium. Both clubs currently sit outside the top eight and will be desperate for a win here. We bring you our full preview and betting tips below!
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Essendon vs Sydney
Location: Marvel Stadium – Melbourne
Date: Saturday, 10th May
Time: 4:15pm (AEST)
Odds: Essendon $2.30 vs Sydney $1.62
Line: +4.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Essendon might be sitting okay on the ladder, but when you dig a little deeper, it’s not that convincing. They’ve only just edged past bottom sides like the Eagles and Kangaroos, scraping together wins that didn’t really prove much. Sure, four wins from their last five looks good on paper, but none have come against genuine contenders. And now, with injuries piling up—most notably to Jordan Ridley, their most important key defender—they’re suddenly looking a lot more vulnerable, especially behind the ball.
The Swans haven’t had a great start to 2025, but their win over the Giants last weekend was easily their most complete performance of the year. It looked like the spark they needed to get things rolling. They were clean, efficient, and dangerous moving forward. What’s especially encouraging is their record at Marvel Stadium—they’ve won seven of their last eight at the Docklands, a venue that suits their fast ball movement and elite foot skills. Against a banged-up Essendon backline, that precision could prove decisive.
The Swans notoriously clean ball use going inside 50 is bad news for a Bombers defence already under pressure without Ridley. Meanwhile, Essendon ranks bottom six for defending scores from turnovers—an area where the Swans thrive, especially with their aggressive half-back setup. And despite Sydney's 3-5 record, they've had a tougher fixture than Essendon and have been better than their win-loss tally suggests.
The bookies have the Swans as 8.5-point favourites, and that feels a bit generous. With Essendon’s shaky form against quality opposition and a depleted backline, Sydney should be able to control the game with their ball use and punish the Bombers on the rebound. If they bring the same level they showed against the Giants, they should not only win but cover that line with a bit to spare. This one feels like a Sydney statement win in the making.
Sydney -4.5
$1.77 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Chad Warner 25+ Disposals – The shackles look to have been released for the Chad after signing a new contract extension. He’s returned to great form over the past two weeks and I expect that to continue.
Nick Blakey 20+ Disposals – Will enjoy the perfect conditions at Marvel and I expect his run and carry to be on full display here. Should find his way to 20 disposals comfortably.
Nic Martin 20+ Disposals – Hasn’t quite been at his best so far this season but can still accumulate with the best of them. Happy to include here.
SGM Odds: $5.00 at BoomBet
