The English Premier League returns after the international break as the first North London Derby of the season takes centre stage. There are plenty of fixtures to look forward to, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets for Matchday 4 below. Good luck to everyone following along!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Anfield, Sunday 15th September 12:00am AEST
It’s been a perfect start to life under Arne Slot with three wins from as many games for Liverpool, after their 3-0 hiding of Manchester United on Matchday 3. Luis Diaz and Mo Salah both got on the score sheet to move to three goals on the season, equal second in the league only behind Erling Haaland. After surviving relegation by one place last season, Nottingham Forest have made a positive start picking up points in all three games this season.
Liverpool have been getting it done at both ends of the pitch, ranked as the number one defensive side in the league, and the only side yet to concede a goal this season. Liverpool rank equal second in goals for (7), only behind league leaders Manchester City. Many thought there would be early pain in the transition under Arne Slot, however it looks clear that the Reds will once again be contending for the league once again.
Since Forest returned to the top flight in 2022, the Reds haven’t been an opponent they’ve enjoyed facing. Liverpool have won three of the four meetings between the two sides, including 3-0 and 1-0 wins in last season’s fixtures. Liverpool haven’t put a foot wrong to start this season and although it’s been a promising start for Forest, they haven’t faced a side with the quality that Liverpool possess. Nottingham Forest have only scored three goals from their opening three games, and they are going to struggle to penetrate an in-form Liverpool back four.
Liverpool -1
$1.60 (2 Units)
Manchester City vs Brentford
Etihad Stadium, Sunday 15th September 12:00am AEST
The four-time defending champions have picked up where they left off, with three straight wins to start their campaign to sit atop the Premier League table. Their latest win was a 3-1 victory over West Ham, thanks to Erling Haaland’s second consecutive hat trick. Brentford travel north to Manchester looking to continue their strong start to the season, sitting in sixth place with a 2-0-1 record.
Manchester City are the highest scoring team in the league through the opening three games of the season, with nine goals. Back to back Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland has scored seven of those nine goals, and looms as a massive challenge for Brentford to stop. Haaland scored the winner when he last faced off against Brentford back in February, and Brentford are yet to register a clean sheet this season.
Pep Guardiola’s side have won four of the six meetings between the two sides since Brentford were promoted to the Premier League three seasons ago. City are ranked third for possession this season averaging 65% possession per game this season, while Brentford ranks 17th with 40.1%. If Brentford give up control through the middle of the ground, this game will be played completely on Manchester City’s terms. If that occurs then Brentford don’t have the defensive quality to keep out City.
Manchester City -2
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Sunday 15th September 11:00pm AEST
Sunday night sees the first North London Derby of season ‘24/’25 as Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs host rivals Arsenal. The Gunners are sitting in fourth after being held to a draw against Brighton, while Tottenham will be looking to get their season going after a 1-1-1 start. Spurs had a frustrating outing in their last game against Newcastle going down 2-1, despite winning the shot count 20-9 and having 66% possession.
Translating their dominance in general play to on the scoreboard was an issue for Spurs last season, and it’s continued across the start of this campaign. Tottenham lead the league for possession (69.1% per game), but have only scored six goals, with four of those coming against Newcastle. Declan Rice’s red card in the 49th minute had Arsenal on the back foot conceding 22 shots on goal and 65% of the possession, however the Gunners looked dangerous when they did go forward, recording 7 shots on target from 11 shots at goal.
Arsenal have enjoyed the better of their crosstown rivals in recent seasons, winning five of the last seven North London Derbies. One thing that has been a trend in these fixtures is high scoring encounters, with four of the last six meetings between the two North London clubs producing over 3.5 goals. Last season’s fixtures saw scorelines of 3-2 and 2-2, and we should be in for another high scoring encounter with plenty of pressure on both sides.
Total Goals Over 3.5
$2.30 (2 Units)
