A crucial weekend of football awaits with the final matchday of Premier League action before the World Cup. Arsenal and City continue their tussle at the top of the table, who will be leading the league heading into a six-week break?
Jack Tobin brings you his best bets for Matchday 16!
EPL 2022-23: Matchday 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Manchester City vs Brentford
Etihad Stadium, Saturday 12th November, 11:30pm AEDT
Matchday 16 kicks off with the defending champions taking on the vastly improved Brentford outfit at the Etihad. A stoppage time penalty from Erling Haaland saw Manchester City capitalise on their dominance in general play in a 2-1 win over Fulham, to keep themselves within 2 points of Arsenal. Brentford were held to a 2-2 draw with 20th placed Nottingham Forest, on the back of an own goal in the 96th minute. Despite the frustrating result, once again Brentford are exceeding expectations, sitting in eleventh place.
Manchester City have managed to stay within touching distance of Arsenal who are having an incredible run to start the season. City’s attacking game has been crucial, scoring a league high 39 goals - eight more than any other team. The defending champs also have the second-best defence in the league, conceding only twelve goals through fourteen games.
City have won both fixtures between these two clubs in the Premier League, and Brentford simply don’t have the defensive quality to contain Erling Haaland and the City attacking unit. Haaland has scored a league best eighteen goals this season, Brentford’s entire side has scored 21 goals. Pep Guardiola’s side will be looking to send a statement heading into the World Cup and will pick up a convincing win over Brentford.
Manchester City -2
$1.60 (1 Unit)
Newcastle vs Chelsea
St James’ Park, Sunday 13th November, 4:30am AEDT
St James’ Park hosts the headline fixture of Matchday 16, with the red-hot Newcastle facing off against Chelsea. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last nine games and have won four on the bounce. Most expected improvement from the Magpies given the financial resources at their disposal, however, to be sitting in third with only one loss from fourteen games has taken the league by storm.
Newcastle are trending north, however the same cannot be said for Chelsea. Sacking Thomas Tuchel hasn’t worked, with Chelsea winless in their last four games. Back-to-back losses against Arsenal and Brighton have seen Chelsea slip to seventh on the Premier League table. Newcastle’s rise this season has come on the back of their defence, which is the number one ranked defence in the Premier League. The Magpies have conceded only 11 goals, with the back four of Burn, Schar, Botman and Tripper gelling incredibly well.
Chelsea have struggled in the front half over their last four games, scoring just three goals in their winless run. Coming up against the league’s best defence, it’s hard to see Chelsea overcoming their form slump. Newcastle come into this game having scored eight goals in their last two games and will be too strong for a struggling Chelsea outfit.
Newcastle H2H
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Wolverhampton vs Arsenal
Molineux Stadium, Sunday 13th November, 6:45am AEDT
Another challenge presented, another obstacle overcome by the league leaders. Arsenal’s 1-0 over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge moved the Gunners to 11-1-1 on the season. Arsenal travel to Molineux Stadium to play the struggling Wolves. Wolverhampton are nineteenth on the Premier League table with a 2-4-8 record, with six losses from their last eight games.
Wolverhampton are the worst attacking team in the Premier League this season, scoring only eight goals through fourteen games. To pair with their horrendous attack, they rank in the bottom half of the league for defence, conceding 22 goals (ranked 13th). In comparison, Arsenal have scored 31 goals this season (ranked 2nd) and have conceded only 11 goals (ranked equal 1st). The Gunners have been elite at both ends of the pitch this season and this looms as a massive mismatch.
The gap between these two sides not only from a talent perspective, but from an output perspective is huge, and simply too much for Wolves to overcome. After the way the Gunners dismantled Chelsea in general play away from home, Wolves will be in serious danger of a serious hiding in this fixture. Arsenal have won two in a row against Wolverhampton and will head into the World Cup still atop the Premier League.
Arsenal -1
$1.87 (2 Units)
More EPL Matchday 16 Tips
Bournemouth vs Everton (Sunday 2am AEDT)
Both teams enter this clash in horrible form, with the Cherries losing four on the spin and the Toffees losing four of their last sixth. Defence is a major concern for the Cherries who have already conceded 32 goals this campaign – the most in the competition. They’ve still managed to find the back of the net consistently themselves however, which makes the BTTS market the best play for this one.
Both Teams to Score ($1.83 at Ladbrokes)
Liverpool vs Southampton (Sunday 2am AEDT)
Liverpool are a tricky team to get a read on at the minute. They continue to defeat the better teams in the league but struggle mightily against the lesser sides. They’ve been shaky on the counterattack all season and that will present the Saints with a couple of chances. As a result, I’m liking BTTS again here.
Both Teams to Score ($1.75 at TAB)
Nottingham vs Crystal Palace (Sunday 2am AEDT)
Nottingham avoided what would’ve been their eighth defeat of the season when drawing with the Bees last weekend. An own goal in the 96th minute by the Bees was a gift that Forest were more than happy to receive. Still, they remain on the bottom of the table and are impossible to fancy for a bet at the current time. Crystal Palace should be winning this on recent form.
Crystal Palace H2H ($2.40 at TAB)
Tottenham vs Leeds (Sunday 2am AEDT)
Leeds backed up their huge result against Liverpool with a win in a seven-goal thriller against the Cherries last start. However, they’re now six league matches without a clean sheet and come up against a potent Tottenham outfit on the road. I expect the home side to bounce back from their disappointing loss against Liverpool with a big win against the visiting Leeds.
Tottenham H2H ($1.63 at Ladbrokes)
West Ham vs Leicester (Sunday 2am AEDT)
Leicester have put a poor start to the season behind them with wins in four of their last seven matches. They were far too good for Everton last start and now get a look at a struggling West Ham this weekend. On current form, the Foxes should be a lot shorter in the H2H market and will be my best value bet for Matchday 16.
Leicester H2H ($3.75 at TAB)
Brighton vs Aston Villa (Monday 1am AEDT)
Brighton look to have found their red-hot form from earlier in the season, with wins in each of their last two matches. Their 4-1 thumping of Chelsea is a clear standout, although winning 3-2 on the road against the Wolves is also a great result. They now get their chance to make it three on the spin with a win against a Villa side that has lost three of their last five. I expect them to get the job done.
Brighton H2H ($1.80 at TAB)
Fulham vs Manchester United (Monday 3:30am AEDT)
Fulham couldn’t come away with a single point despite having a one-man advantage for the majority of their fixture against City. Despite that result, Fulham have had a positive return to the Premier League and will fancy their chances against the other side from Manchester this weekend. On recent performances, Fulham are strong value to secure at least one point here.
Fulham or Draw ($1.87 at TAB)
