The final day of the 2021-22 Premier League season is set for a stunning finish, with the title, Champions League and relegation positions all up for grabs. Can Manchester City secure a fourth title in five seasons? Can Tottenham hold onto fourth place? Can Leeds avoid relegation? For the final Matchday of the season, Jack Tobin has you covered with his EPL Tips.
EPL Matchday 38 Betting Tips
Arsenal vs Everton
Monday 23rd May, 1.00am (AEST)
Arsenal have fallen apart in the last week, with losses to Tottenham and Newcastle seeing the Gunners surrender fourth place and now relying on Tottenham to lose against 20th placed Norwich for any hope of a Champions League berth. This clash is equally important for the Toffees, with a win guaranteeing Premier League survival. Everton will have a chance to guarantee avoiding the relegation zone when they play Crystal Palace on Friday morning, but if they fail to do so, it will be a nerve wracking weekend for the Toffees.
Everton are two points clear of eighteenth place, however Burnley and Leeds have easier games on the final day of the season. Despite being positioned at opposite ends of the table, given what is at stake for both teams, this is going to be a close game. Given Arsenal’s struggles at the back in their last two games, Mikel Arteta will have to make some adjustments, so expect this game to be a slower paced encounter.
Given how much Everton have struggled at the back this season (15th ranked defence, 59 goals conceded) the Gunners will be confident that they can still put goals past the Toffees in slow play. Arsenal simply have to win and given the gap in scoring avenues they will be too good for Everton who will be playing their second game in four days. With Arsenal having nearly a week's rest between games, they shouldn’t have any troubles in this clash, keeping their Champions League hopes alive.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Monday 23rd May, 1.00am (AEST)
Manchester City dropped points in a 2-2 draw with West Ham on Matchday 37, however their destiny is still in their own hands, sitting one point clear of second placed Liverpool. A win guarantees the title for Pep Guardiola’s side, a big game pressure they’ve become accustomed to over the past five years. This clash will be Villa’s second game in four days on the back of a fixture on Friday morning against Burnley, with nothing to gain out of their final two games of the season.
For the second season in a row Manchester City are the number one ranked defence (24 goals conceded) and the number one ranked attacking team in the Premier League with 96 goals this season. Their consistency on both sides of the ball has been historic across the last two seasons, and their 14-2-2 record at The Etihad this season will have them full of confidence that they can close out the title at home.
Manchester City have gone 22-4-1 since November and they have loved playing against Aston Villa. Against Villa, Manchester City hold a 16-2-2 record in their last twenty Premier League meetings. To highlight City’s dominance, the aggregate score across those twenty games has been 51-12. With another title in sight, you can expect to see Pep Guardiola’s at their ruthless best on Monday morning.
Brentford vs Leeds United
Monday 23rd May, 1.00am (AEST)
Leeds’ Premier League dreams come down to one single game, needing a win to guarantee avoiding relegation. For the majority of the season, Leeds looked safer than Everton and Burnley, but at the time of writing they sit in seventeenth just one point ahead of Burnley who have a game in hand against Aston Villa on Friday morning. Brentford come into the final game of the season with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games, in what has been an excellent first campaign in the top flight of English football.
Leeds’ struggles this season have come from having one of the Premier League’s worst defences, conceding 78 goals, the second most in the Premier League. Leeds have conceded ten goals in their last four games, while Brentford have scored six goals in their last two games.
Leeds have just one win from their last seven games and are coming up against a reliable and consistent Brentford outfit. Leeds have been poor away from Elland Road this season with a 4-3-9 record in away games, while Brentford are unbeaten in their last three home games. Brentford are playing their best football of the season right now and will be ready to pile on the misery for a Leeds side low on confidence.
Other Tips
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United - Manchester United H2H ($2.25 with TAB)
Chelsea vs Watford - Chelsea -2 ($1.85 with TAB)
Leicester vs Southampton - Leicester H2H ($1.90 with TAB)
Burnley vs Newcastle - Draw ($3.40 with TAB)
Nowrich vs Tottenham - Tottenham -2 ($2.05 with TAB)
Brighton vs West Ham - Brighton H2H ($2.50 with TAB)
Liverpool vs Wolves - Liverpool -2 ($1.90 with TAB)
