A game with huge top 8 implications completes Super Saturday, as the hot North Queensland Cowboys host the Parramatta Eels in Townsville, with the winner guaranteed a place in the top 8 come the end of the week. Can the Eels shut the hottest team in the competition down, or will the Cowboys continue their march towards the finals?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 22nd July, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Cowboys weren’t at their clinical best last week, however with 5 stars backing up from Origin and a trip to Brookvale, Head Coach Todd Payten would have been happy to get the 2 points. The biggest concerns for Payten would be the error count (13) and penalties conceded (7), and they will need to be far better this weekend against a fellow top 8 side in the Eels.
The Eels battled past the Titans at home, coming away 25-24 winners on the back of a Mitch Moses field goal in the 76th minute. The Eels did well to get the win, considering they were down to 11 players for a period of time, whilst they conceded a whopping 9 line-breaks against the Titans. With two players (Maika Sivo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard) having been suspended following the game, the Eels have plenty to do this week.
The Cowboys opened 3.5-point favourites for this huge game, and after news of the suspensions to Sivo and RCG, money has poured in on the Cowboys, who now sit 7.5-point favourites. I had the opener right on the money, and for the number to kick out 4 points, past the keys of four and six, I believe this spread has gone too far. I don’t believe a front rower and a winger can be worth 4 points to a team, so I have the Eels as solid value here.
As for the total, it opened 47.5 and hasn’t moved off that number. I make a fair 50, so do see some value in the over here. However, both teams have been fairly neutral when it comes to total betting this season, with the Eels (10-8) and the Cowboys (8-10) hitting the overs close to 50% of the time.
Whilst I do like the Eels to cover the spread here, I’m going with a slightly longer option in this one. I do like the Cowboys to get the job done here; however, I don’t see the Eels allowing this to be a blowout. The Eels have lost only one game this season by 13+, and that was in a game recently where they were heavily affected by Origin. I like them to keep it tight, and as such love the Cowboys by 1-12.
Cowboys (1-12)
$3.25 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Cowboys to Win – A top up for the multi here, with the write up above showing why I like the Cowboys to get the win.
Over 39.5 Points – I see value in the over 47.5 total, dropping more than a converted try to once again bump up the odds here.
Murray Taulagi (1+ Try) – The Eels right edge defence has struggled this season, and Taulagi is one of the best young finishers in the game. With 8 tries in 14 games, I like him to cross the stripe here.
Clint Gutherson (1+ Try) – King Gutho continues to show up at the right place, at the right time. This couldn’t be shown better than by his try in the corner last week against the Titans. Gutho is always involved in everything for the Eels, and another try tonight is a great chance.
SGM Odds: $9 at Picklebet
