The early bird catches the worm

July 9th 2013, 4:26pm, By: admin

Twitter is such a valuable resource and it’s changed the way the media operates. Many years ago you’d have to wait for the morning newspaper to find out the latest news and results. More recently it would be the six o’clock news. Nowadays news is released on the Internet within seconds of it happening, and more often than not, it is members of the general public posting the news on Twitter before journalists or news outlets have even had a chance to prepare their columns.

For sports bettors, having breaking news at your fingertips can be very advantageous, and an example of that happened over the weekend.

It was Friday night at around 7:30pm when news broke that Gary Ablett was going to be withdrawn from the Gold Coast side to play Brisbane the following night. The news was first leaked on Twitter.  So what does a smart sports trader do when the best player in the league has been withdrawn from a match?  He loads up on the opposition of course!

When the news broke, Brisbane were trading at $1.55 to defeat Gold Coast.  This was the opportunity to load up, knowing that once the news was widespread, Brisbane were certainties to trade in.  And that’s exactly what happened.  Check out this graph:

Betfair graph

Note the two spikes in volume at around the $1.55 mark where smart traders got on board. Brisbane were quickly into $1.40 before nudging into around $1.37 or so.  That’s a significant drop and there was plenty of opportunity to capitalize on this with several agencies slow to adjust their fixed prices. It allowed us to back Brisbane at the $1.55 and then trade out at around $1.40 before the match for either a nice freeroll or a guaranteed profit:

For example, if Brisbane win:

$1,000 back bet on Brisbane at $1.55 = $550 win
$1,000 lay bet on Brisbane at $1.40 = $400 loss

So we're effectively freerolling Brisbane for a $150 win at absolutely zero risk (excluding commission).  Or we could hedge and pick up around $90 profit regardless of the result.  Again with zero risk. As you can see, the amounts don’t matter. We’re not actually risking the $1,000, as long as there is enough liquidity in the market for to trade.

Follow Before You Bet on Twitter as we will try to bring you opportunities like this the moment they happen, so that you too can get in early to take advantage of favourable trading situations such as this.


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