Four straight losses has the reigning premiers on the canvas, two games outside of the eight with just five games remaining. The Pies face Richmond in a must win game to kick off Sunday football, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview.
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2024 AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Richmond
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, 28th July, MCG
With their season effectively on the line in a battle of 12th versus 13th, Collingwood served up their worst performance of the season in a 66 point defeat to Hawthorn. It was the Magpies biggest loss since Round 22 2021, with arguably the most damning stat being the fact it took them until the 20 minute mark of the third quarter to register their second goal.
Craig McRae’s side kicked five goals in the last quarter to attempt to maintain some respectability, but it was nothing short of a horrendous performance. The Pies recorded -146 disposals, -32 inside 50’s and -29 contested possessions which told you everything you need to know about the way they performed.
Richmond were solid for three quarters against Port Adelaide in another respectable performance from the undermanned Tigers. Richmond were within 10 points at three quarter time before Port Adelaide kicked four goals to none in the final quarter to take the final margin to 41 points.
Daniel Rioli led the way for the Tigers with 28 disposals and 2 goals, while Jacob Hopper (25 disposals) and Dion Prestia (24 and 1 goal) were also important.
Collingwood’s struggles over the last month have been their ability to win the ball, with opposition sides figuring out they can nullify Collingwood’s pressure with a chip mark style of football. Collingwood are ranked 16th in the AFL for disposals, 18th for marks and 15th for inside 50’s, which simply aren’t numbers that speak to a side that will feature in September.
Fortunately for the Pies they’re coming up against a Richmond side that ranks 18th in points for, 17th in disposals, 17th for marks, and 16th for inside 50’s. Richmond have struggled with opposition sides converting a high percentage of inside 50’s into scores, which looms as a major concern for Collingwood if they can get back to their brand of football.
Match Prediction: A game against Richmond couldn’t have come at a better time for Collingwood, with a golden opportunity to keep their slim finals hopes alive with a big win. The Tigers have lost 13 of their last 14 games, with those 13 losses coming by an average margin of 47 points.
Although Collingwood have been in horror form over the last month, they should have any issues covering just over four goals against the worst team in the competition. 12 of Richmond’s 16 losses this season have come by 25 or more points, and it’s difficult to see them keeping this game close.
Collingwood -24.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Although Collingwood are on a steep slide right now, Nick Daicos has still won plenty of footy over the last month. In the Pies four game losing streak that they’re currently on, Daicos has recorded 30+ disposals in three of the four games. Daicos only had 24 disposals last week, which was still the most of any Collingwood player.
Jacob Hopper 25+ Disposals: In a year full of injury frustrations Jacob Hopper has produced when he’s been on the field. Since returning from injury in Round 16, Hopper has recorded four straight games of 25+ disposals. Hopper has hit the 25 disposals mark in five of his seven games in 2024.
Daniel Rioli 25+ Disposals: Daniel Rioli has hit some excellent form amongst plenty of trade interest. Rioli has recorded 26, 26 and 28 disposals across his last three games and he recorded 25 disposals in his last game against Collingwood.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
